Ky. Derby prep trends: Winning styles are clear for 4 races

It has been six years since Good Magic wasthe last reigning Eclipse Award winner to race in the Grade 2 Fountain of YouthStakes. Dehere in 1994 was the last one to win it.

Forte will change at least half that recenthistory when he starts as the 7-5 morning-line favorite in Saturday’s feature atGulfstream Park.

The bigger goal is to win Kentucky Derby 2023.The Fountain of Youth, the Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct, the San Felipe (G2) at SantaAnita and the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park will reward their top-fivefinishers Saturday with points toward qualifying for the May 6 classic.

In their history the four prep races haveproduced a combined 28 Derby winners, including Rich Strike. His unlikelyvictory last year came two months after the Battaglia. If not for the one pointhe got from his fourth-place finish near Cincinnati, Rich Strike would not havegotten into the 20-horse gate at Churchill Downs.

Fountain of Youth

Curiously, since the points system wasestablished for Derby qualifying, horses coming from at least 3 1/2 lengths offthe pace won seven of the last 10 runnings of the Fountain of Youth. Thosewinners all were behind the top three at some point in the 1 1/16-mile race.

Shown with their past-performance linesgleaned from Equibase, these were the Fountain of Youth winners since 2000:

Forte fits the recent profile. The Violencecolt trained by Todd Pletcher was no closer than fifth at the mid-point of histhree Grade 1 victories during his championship 2-year-old season.

Graded-stakes winners Blazing Sevens (7-2)and General Jim (6-1), the second and third choices on the morning line, also tendto come from off the pace.

Translating this success to Kentucky has beenmore difficult. Even though the Fountain of Youth has produced 13 Derbywinners, only Thunder Gulch in 1995 and Orb in 2013 graduated to wear the rosesin Louisville since 1980. They are shown here with their Quirin Speed Points, with E meaning early speed; E/P for early presser, or stalker; P for presser,or mid-pack; and S for sustaining, or closer. The higher the number, the more likelyearly speed will be shown into the first turn.

Since Orb, only Good Magic in 2018 and Codeof Honor in 2019 came through this Gulfstream prep to finish in the money inthe Derby, each placing second in Louisville. Simplification, who finishedfourth last year in Kentucky, was the only Fountain of Youth finisher in thelast three years to run for the roses.

One reason may have been evident in a morepatient strategy. Five of the last seven Kentucky Derby winners who passedthrough Gulfstream Park did so in the Florida Derby (G1) after skipping theFountain of Youth.

San Felipe

Speed. Baffert. Those had been the commoningredients for almost all the winners of this 1 1/16-mile race sinceCalifornia Chrome’s triumph in 2014.

Seven of the last eight San Felipe victorsled from gate to wire, including Forbidden Kingdom last year. Four of the lastseven were trained by Baffert, a record eight-time winner in this race, mostrecently with Life Is Good in 2021.

Because of his Churchill Downs suspension,Baffert had to transfer his 2023 San Felipe horses to Tim Yakteen to makethem eligible for the Derby. Hejazi, Fort Bragg, National Treasure and Mr Fisk allbroke their maidens for Baffert. They will be returned to his care after theDerby, so their trainer of record may be in the eye of the betting beholder.

Of the four transferred colts, only Hejazihas the E designation to indicate early speed. However, in his first fourraces, he did not lead at any call until his gate-to-wire, maiden-breaking scoreJan. 15 at Santa Anita.

Forbidden Kingdom’s win last year not onlyfit the front-running pattern, it also added to trainer Richard Mandella’ssuccess in the San Felipe. He sends Geaux Rocket Ride, a debut winner who ledthe whole way Jan. 29, in search of his fourth victory in this prep.

In its 86 runnings, the San Felipe hasproduced 13 Derby winners. Four have come since 2000. It would have been five ifMedina Spirit had not been disqualified nine months after his failed drug testin 2021, the one that triggered Baffert’s suspension.

The four Derby winners this century whograduated from the San Felipe also followed the pacesetting or stalkingtemplate. Overall, three of the last six, namely Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quietin 1998 and Authentic in 2020, were trained by Baffert.

Gotham Stakes

The victory pattern for this Aqueduct prepchanged three years ago. Before Mischievous Alex stalked the early pace in his2020 win, five of the previous seven Gotham winners closed from at least 3 1/4 lengthsbehind.

Add Weyburn and Morello to the recent mix,and the race has become a proving ground for horses on or near the lead throughwhat has been a one-turn mile since 2018.

There are plenty of candidates this weekendwho fill the forward-going profile. The presence of Withers (G3) runner-upArctic Arrogance; Jerome victor Lugan Knight; undefeated colts Recruiter, EyeingClover and Transect; maiden winner Slip Mahoney; and Baffert transfers CarmelRoad and Fort Warren should guarantee a hot early pace.

There has not been a gate-to-wire Gothamwinner since Like Now in 2006 and none at a mile since Mayakovsky in 2002.

There also has not been a Gotham finisher whohit the board in the Kentucky Derby since Aptitude placed second in both racesin 2000.

Hall of Fame great Secretariat was the onlyGotham horse ever to win the Kentucky Derby. He finished first in both races 50years ago on his way to the Triple Crown.

Most tracks stretch the distance oftheir Derby qualifiers, but Aqueduct exceptionally cuts back from the nine-furlongWithers to the eight furlongs of the Gotham, the last one-turn race on the U.S.points-prep schedule.

John Battaglia Memorial

Rich Strike was not the only horse who franked the importance of this prep. Tizthe Bomb won both it and the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on the same Tapeta course onhis way to a ninth-place result in the 2022 Derby.

Under the expanded points system rewardingtop-five finishers this season, the Battaglia’s value was simultaneously doubled.Where the Fountain of Youth, San Felipe and Gotham award 50-20-15-10-5 points,this race is worth 20-8-6-4-2.

The points-prep cachet brought on byChurchill Downs Inc.’s 2019 purchase of Turfway helped the Battaglia graduatetwo horses to the Derby last year for the first time since 2002.

The last seven Battaglia winners closed fromat least third place. Four of them, including Tiz the Bomb last year, were threeor more lengths behind at some point.

The Battaglia was started in 1982 and hasbeen a traditional prep for the Jeff Ruby Steaks, a race that under other nameswas a waystation for eventual Derby winners Lil E. Tee in 1992, Animal Kingdomin 2011 and, of course, Rich Strike.