Fountain of Youth fair odds: Forte looks formidable

It's been an interesting journey on the Kentucky Derby trail generating fair odds for key prep races.

The good: We've successfully identified several vulnerable (i.e. underlaid) favorites.

The bad: We haven't identified any of the best wagering opportunities.

The ugly: Horses I'm giving less than a five percent chance of winning are... winning.

It happens, though. Part of the challenge of this exercise is not to be overly results-oriented. Even 99-1 horses should win one percent of the time. Again, it happens, but a sound fair odds line is as strong a foundation as there is to beat the game long term.

So, we're back at it for the Fountain of Youth Stakes on Saturday at Gulfstream Park (and the San Felipe at Santa Anita Park, the Gotham at Aqueduct, and the Battaglia at Turfway all later this week).

The Fountain of Youth (G2) features the return of champion Forte, who has not raced since winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November at Keeneland Race Course. 

We've seen time and again (especially in the filly ranks this year) that horses catch up to each other as they develop as 3-year-olds, but we'd need to see a lot of development from others and hardly any from 4 Forte for him to lose this.

That said, there are a few concerns that made me go 9-5 instead of 3-2 or even money. The biggest such concern is the pace scenario. No. 7 Mage looks to have a big edge in this regard, and while I don't love the thought of a three-start Apollo horse for the Kentucky Derby, he certainly figures here catching the champ off the bench.

Otherwise, both No. 6 Blazing Sevens and No. 8 Rocket Can also factor against Forte at their best, but the former is even more pace-compromised than Forte (off the same layoff) while the latter is getting class tested here for sure.

From a long shot perspective, if either No. 1 General Jim or No. 3 Shadow Dragon take "no money" then they're worth a look at prices of $30 or more.