Ky. Derby trail: Fountain of Youth 2023 odds and analysis

The Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes, which will be run Saturday, is the second of three official prep races at Gulfstream Park on the road to Kentucky Derby 2023. The 1 1/16-mile race drew a field of 10 3-year-olds who will compete for the 50-20-15-10-5 points that go to the top five finishers.

The Fountain of Youth has seven horses who already have raced on the Kentucky Derby trail. Six won a total of 90 Derby qualifying points led by Forte, the 2022 champion 2-year-old male and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Fountain of Youth, which is scheduled as race 14 of 14 with the post time set for 5:43 p.m. EST. Each horse is shown with the Gulfstream Park morning-line odds, his sire, trainer, jockey, record and purse earnings.

1., 6-1, Into Mischief, , Luis Saez, 6: 3-0-2, $231,533. General Jim won the seven-furlong Swale Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park last month, when he rallied from a stalking position to win by a length, wearing blinkers for the first time. As a 2-year-old he debuted at Saratoga and then got two wins on the turf, including his maiden breaker at the Spa, and then an allowance at Keeneland, both at 1 1/16 miles. He ran third in the Central Park at Aqueduct on the grass and switched back to dirt at Gulfstream with a fourth-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man. Win contender.

, 20-1, Shackleford, , Emisael Jaramillo, 4: 2-1-0, $90,725. Legacy Isle crossed the finish line in front in his first three starts, all of which were at Gulfstream. He won a maiden special weight and then stretched out to a mile in an allowance. After finishing first in the Mucho Macho Man, Legacy Isle was disqualified and placed second after drifting out in the stretch. In the Holy Bull (G3) he was part of the early pace and faded to fourth after racing on the wrong lead but earned four Derby qualifying points. Toss.

3., 12-1, Army Mule, Bill Mott, Jose Ortiz, 3: 1-1-0, $92,050. Shadow Dragon rallied from far behind in his debut in a New York-bred maiden special weight at Aqueduct in September and then was sixth in a state-bred stakes race going a mile. He went to Florida and made his first of this year in the Holy Bull, where he finished second after a wide, late rally, earning eight Derby points. Win contender.

4., 7-5, Violence, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 5: 4-0-0, $1,595,150. Forte makes his first start of the year in the Fountain of Youth after a stellar juvenile campaign when three Grade 1 victories earned him the Eclipse Award as the champion 2-year-old male. Wins in the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile earned Forte 40 Derby qualifying points, which probably are enough to get him into the run for the roses. Forte went to Florida in November and got a short rest before resuming his training at Palm Beach Downs. Win contender.

5., 30-1, Gun Runner, , Edgar Perez, 7: 1-3-0, $62,125. Il Miracolo began his career at Gulfstream with three second-place finishes in a row before he got a victory with a front-end trip going a mile. He shipped up to New York, where a troubled start cost him any chance in the Remsen (G2). Back in Florida he was seventh in the Mucho Macho Man and then fifth in the Holy Bull, which got him two Derby points. Toss.

6. , 7-2, Good Magic, Chad Brown, Joel Rosario, 4: 2-0-1, $468,750. Blazing Sevens will make his first start of the year in the Fountain of Youth as trainer Chad Brown begins his quest to win the Kentucky Derby for the first time. The son of Good Magic drew off to break his maiden at first asking at Saratoga by more than six lengths. He was third in the Hopeful (G1) behind Forte and then rallied to an impressive victory in the Champagne (G1). In the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile he recovered from a poor start to finish fourth, which pushed his Derby points total to 16. Win contender.

, 8-1, Good Magic, , Javier Castellano, 1: 1-0-0, $42,000. Mage beat a field eight in his debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight by almost four lengths at Gulfstream in January with a front-end effort in a fast time. He will have to make a huge step up in class onto the Derby trail while stretching out to two turns. Toss.

8. Rocket Can, 8-1, Into Mischief, , Junior Alvarado, 5: 2-1-0, $249,738. Rocket Can began his career with a pair of unimpressive starts at Saratoga. He broke his maiden on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs going two turns. That was followed by a second in an allowance behind Confidence Game, who just won the Rebel (G2). Rocket Can picked up 20 Derby points when he won the Holy Bull with a stalking trip at odds of 5-2. Win contender.

9., 12-1, Into Mischief, , Tyler Gaffalione, 5: 2-0-1, $114,950. Cyclone Mischief will try and bounce back from a seventh-place finish in the Holy Bull, where he was the buzz horse as the 6-5 favorite. His two victories in a Keeneland maiden race and a Gulfstream allowance were by more than five lengths. Between those wins he was seventh in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) after leading in the stretch. It is hard to know what to expect from this son of Into Mischief. Toss.

10., 30-1, Lord Nelson, , Miguel Vasquez, 9: 3-1-0, $154,832. Dangerous Ride was a debut winner at Gulfstream on the Tapeta track back in May, and that launched him on a run of seven stakes races with all but one of them at Gulfstream. He tried the turf twice with poor results and was placed first by disqualification in the Juvenile in Florida back on the Tapeta. In January, Dangerous Ride won a seven-furlong allowance on the main track at Gulfstream by more than two lengths on the lead the whole way. Toss.

Summary: Forte and Blazing Sevens are the top two choices in the morning line based on their Grade 1 victories as 2-year-olds and their strong performances in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Neither of them has raced since November but, coming from the barns of Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown, could be ready to win after the long layoff.

In case Forte and Blazing Sevens need a race, the top choice might be the live long shot Shadow Dragon from the barn of Bill Mott, who also has the Holy Bull winner Rocket Can in this field.