LA Galaxy vs LAFC MLS Odds, Picks and Predictions July 4
LAFC are the clear betting favorites in the latest installment of El Trafico, but that could be a smokescreen. Still, the 3-way moneyline might not be the avenue to take. Find out what market we prefer in our MLS betting picks.
It’s always a big deal when LA Galaxy and LAFC face off. Tuesday’s edition of El Trafico, in the words of the late Keith Jackson, could be “the Granddaddy of them all” as the two teams meet on Independence Day in the iconic Rose Bowl Stadium.
The Galaxy continue to languish near the bottom of the Western Conference despite drawing each of their last four matches and having suffered only two defeats in their last eight. Meanwhile, LAFC have lost four of their last six matches in league play and now sit three points back of St Louis City with a match in hand.
The 20th El Trafico is expected to be the most-attended MLS match in history, and we’re here to break it down from a betting perspective in our LA Galaxy vs LAFC picks and predictions for Tuesday, July 4.
LA Galaxy vs LAFC best odds
LA Galaxy vs LAFC picks and predictions
To say LAFC have been playing with one hand tied behind their back isn’t far from being true. Midfielder Kellyn Acosta and defenders Jesus Murillo and Sergi Palencia have been out injured, while defender Aaron Long is on international duty with the USMNT. That’s all in addition to the continued absence of goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau.
While Acosta returned to action in their 2-0 loss to FC Dallas this weekend, it’s going to take him a bit of time to get back up to speed. LAFC are still recovering from their run to the CONCACAF Champions League final, and are in the midst of a congested fixture list. They’ve played seven matches since June 7, and they will play another five over a 17-day stretch, including Tuesday’s match.
That’s why our best bet is for LA Galaxy to get a result on Tuesday. The Galaxy might not be the best team in the league — heck, only Colorado have fewer points this season. They’ve also got some injury issues, with stars Javier Hernandez and Martin Caceres both on the shelf for the rest of the season. But they’re rested, with just five matches played since the start of June.
More importantly, they’re fighting to get results. They’ve drawn four straight matches, with two of those seeing them drop points late from winning positions. The streak started with a draw at St Louis City, and this weekend they went into San Jose and nearly got a victory before an 81st-minute goal from Cristian Espinoza denied them all three points. More impressive, they got the last two draws with both their first-choice center backs out of the lineup.
When these two clubs get together, records and results go out the window. They’ve split the last 10 meetings evenly; each side has four victories to go along with two draws. This match was supposed to open the MLS season, but having it on the 4th of July works out perfectly because these teams tend to bring the fireworks when they meet up.
But at the end of the night, I the Galaxy are going to have enough fight and draw enough energy from the amped crowd to see it through. LAFC are favored far too heavily given their recent run of form, in addition to allowing 11 goals over their last six matches.
Take the Galaxy getting half a goal on the Asian handicap, which has a better price at -111 than the double chance. If your book doesn’t offer the Asian handicap market, then avoid the 3-way spread and take the double chance instead, which is currently priced between -125 and -135.
My best bet: LA Galaxy +0.5 Asian handicap (-111 at bet365)
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LA Galaxy vs LAFC side analysis
The 3-way line leaves no doubt who the public believes to be the favorite on Tuesday. LAFC are priced at even money or shorter with the Galaxy getting as high as +260, while the draw is the last choice on the line.
Earlier this season, LAFC were knocked out of the US Open Cup in a 2-0 loss to the Galaxy at home, but it’s important to note that LAFC fielded a squad of backups and youth academy players. In addition to the absences noted earlier, midfielder Memo Rodriguez remains out, while defender Sega Coulibaly was waived by the club on Friday. Defender Jalen Neal is also out on international duty with the USMNT.
LAFC will be missing the players we mentioned earlier, but Acosta might be relegated to the bench again to start. He went 45 minutes at the weekend, and it might be too much to ask him to go from the opening whistle just three days later.
The Galaxy have drawn four straight, and have split their last 12 matches evenly with four wins and four defeats to go with those four draws. LAFC come into the match losers of four of their last six, and seven of their last 10.
If I had to pick a result on the 3-way line, the draw would be my play. It’s excellent value and it makes sense to give it a shot. However, the safer play is the double chance for the Galaxy, as we discussed earlier for our best bet.
LA Galaxy vs LAFC Over/Under analysis
There is a lot of variance in the Total market for 2.5 goals heading into this match, but there’s a consensus on the Over being the play. However, you can get the Over anywhere between -145 at FanDuel and -175 at a few books, while the Under pays around +125 nearly everywhere — so shop accordingly for the best MLS odds, whichever site you go for.
As for which one is more likely to hit, this series tends to go Over quite frequently. Excluding US Open Cup matches, there have been three or more goals scored in 13 of the 17 MLS outings between these sides. And there have been at least four goals scored in 11 of those 17 matches, meaning there’s value if you wanted to go for the Over 3.5 instead.
The Over has hit in four of LA Galaxy’s last six matches, with those four overs featuring at least four goals scored. For LAFC, four of their last 10 have gone Over 2.5 goals, with just two of those matches seeing four or more.
I’ll be staying away from the Over 2.5, but it’s the more likely to hit. I’d recommend pairing it with both teams to score if you want to get a better price, but both teams are missing key players in their back lines, and that should lead to better scoring chances.
LA Galaxy vs LAFC game info
LA Galaxy vs LAFC key injuries
LA Galaxy: Javier Hernandez F (Out), Martin Caceres D (Out), Memo Rodriguez M (Out).
LAFC: Kellyn Acosta M (Probable), Jesus Murillo D (Out), Maxime Crepeau GK (Out), Sergi Palencia D (Out), Aaron Long D (Out).
LA Galaxy vs LAFC weather
Unlike the original match, this one has no chance of being suspended for severe weather. In fact, it’ll be a perfect evening for everyone involved. Temperatures will be in the low 70s at kickoff with plenty of sunshine, no chance of rain, and a light breeze at most.
