Lakers vs. Mavericks NBA Player Props, Odds: Fade Los Angeles Stars in Letdown Spot

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12 December 2023

Lakers vs. Mavericks NBA Player Props, Odds: Fade Los Angeles Stars in Letdown Spot

We're fading the Los Angeles Lakers stars in a road tilt against the Dallas Mavericks following their In-Season Tournament championship, and we explain the reasons why in our Lakers vs. Mavericks NBA player props based on the best NBA odds from the best sports betting apps.

The Los Angeles Lakers sent a message to the rest of the league with their dominant showing in the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament, led by a healthy LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

While that run underscores this team's potential in the postseason, the Lakers return to reality this week in the middle of the Western Conference standings. Having expended considerable energy to secure victory in the NBA Cup, Tuesday's road test against the Dallas Mavericks poses a prime letdown spot for the Lakers.

To go along with our Warriors vs. Suns player props, here are our best Lakers vs. Mavericks NBA player props and NBA picks, and don't forget to read our piece on how the Lakers' futures markets moved NBA betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lakers vs. Mavericks NBA player props

Anthony Davis Under 27.5 points (-127 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This prop became 14 cents more expensive as I was writing this while moving from -113 to -127 at Caesars. That's a sign the Under is the right side, and it's worth pouncing on as long as the points prop is 26.5 or higher based on our projection of 23 points.

You might be questioning the projection due to our last memory of Davis. The Lakers big man shouted "I'm him" to the fans in Las Vegas after scoring 41 points and collecting 20 rebounds in a 123-109 victory over the Indiana Pacers during the IST championship game. But unfortunately, those statistics are unofficial since that contest was technically ruled an 83rd game for both teams.

While that was arguably Davis' best game in quite some time, he's also prone to following up huge performances with a dud. Davis leans on his teammates to feed him the rock inside and is unable to hit a jumper at all, which does help explain his offensive inconsistencies.

The veteran was banged up in the third quarter before still playing 41 minutes on Saturday, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him rest on Tuesday. If he does play, Davis will likely be less involved offensively against a Dallas team that held him to 10 points on as many shot attempts during the previous head-to-head meeting on Nov. 22.

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LeBron James Under 1.5 steals and blocks (+125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Lakers have posted the best defensive rating in the league since the calendar flipped to December, which coincides with Jarred Vanderbilt (and other plus-defenders on the wing) returning to the lineup. But it also included three single-elimination IST games.

When looking at how he played, it's no secret that LeBron James wanted to win the NBA Cup. He dispatched the New Orleans Pelicans while becoming the first player in NBA history to put up at least 30 points, five assists, and five rebounds in 23 minutes or fewer. But he also brought it defensively, recording multiple steals in two of the three IST games.

Now that we're back to a regular-season game in December, it's unlikely James will be as locked in defensively. He's still averaging 1.5 steals and 0.7 blocks per game in 2023, clearing this mark in 14 of 22 games. That's why we're getting plus money on this Under.

But I think it's worth taking prior to a game when James will probably save his legs for the offensive end, especially with the number of capable defenders the Lakers now employ. With a projection just below two combined steals and blocks, this prop is should be played at +115 or better.

Lakers-Mavericks NBA player props made 12/12/2023 at 9:45 a.m. ET.

SGP: Luka Doncic to score eight-plus points in first quarter and Mavericks 1Q ML (+170 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

I'd be lying if I said this bet was made based on numbers. That's usually how I prefer to place wagers, but this same-game parlay does have my three-star confidence and gives us something to sweat during the early moments of Tuesday's marquee matchup.

Kyrie Irving is listed as out for the Dallas Mavericks, while Doncic is questionable. The full-game spread has moved three points in the Lakers' favor, but it's worth noting that the first-quarter betting lines remain a toss-up. That's largely due to the poor situational spot for Los Angeles.

The Lakers have struggled at the start of games this season, ranking 26th in net rating. That mark has been trending up in recent weeks, as head coach Darvin Ham has started to play Davis the entire first quarter.

With Davis listed as questionable and coming off a 41-minute outing, I wouldn't be surprised if there is an earlier sub for the big man. Assuming he plays, Doncic should be able to take advantage before Vanderbilt subs into the game and serves as his primary defender. To be honest, Vanderbilt (currently coming off the bench) has bothered Doncic a bit more than most defenders in the past.

Doncic led the league in first-quarter scoring last year with over 11 points scored in the opening period. He's now fourth in that metric, with an average of 8.2 points scored in the first frame this season. Don't be surprised if Doncic produces a stat line closer to last year's numbers against a sleepy Lakers squad.

Lakers-Mavericks SGP made 12/12/2023 at 2:01 p.m. ET.

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