Our Best Bets for January 12
Luka's been racking up popcorn stats all season, and the fast-paced, brick-heavy Lakers will give him plenty of chances to pad his stats when the Mavs visit tonight. See why he highlights our NBA player prop picks for Thursday.
It’s a bit of a light night in the NBA, with just six games on the schedule. But boy, there are some tantalizing matchups for player prop bettors to dig into, including Luka Doncic and the Mavericks taking on LeBron James and the Lakers.
Both Luka and LeBron are playing out of their minds at the moment, but it’s a Doncic rebounding prop that has really caught my eye. In fact, there is a trio of rebounding props that have piqued my interest tonight.
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Thursday, January 12.
NBA player props for January 12
Picks made on 1/12/2023 at 1:50 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Beard boards
The Philadelphia 76ers are playing very good basketball. They’ve won 12 of their last 15 games, and a big reason for that is that James Harden is arguably playing his best basketball since becoming a member of the 76ers.
Harden is absolutely hooping recently. The Sixers guard is averaging 22.3 points per game while shooting 40.9% from 3-point range over the last nine games. He's also dishing out a ridiculous 12.2 assists with 6.8 rebounds per game over that span. So, there are a lot of ways we can go when it comes to Harden props in tonight’s matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
And the best way to back Harden tonight is on the boards. While the Sixers aren't a very good rebounding team, the Thunder are even worse.
For starters, OKC is just an undersized team in general. And the few big men they do play are injured. As a result, the Thunder rank 24th in the NBA when it comes to rebounding rate and dead last in opponent rebounds per game. They also surrender the most rebounds per game to opposing guards.
As mentioned, Harden is averaging 6.8 rebounds per game over his last nine and is getting a rebounding over/under of 6.5 for this matchup at even money. He’s grabbed seven or more rebounds in five of those nine games including the last three in a row. I call that value.
James Harden Prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (+100)
Don dada
There's an awesome matchup on tap in the NBA tonight as Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks head to Los Angeles to take on LeBron James and the Lakers. Both Doncic and LeBron come into this game playing some great basketball, but tonight we are looking at a prop for El Matador.
Doncic is currently the NBA MVP odds favorite, and the numbers back that up. Doncic is putting up 34.2 points, which is tops in the NBA, on 50.1% shooting while adding 8.9 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game, and for this game, we’re going to focus on Doncic’s ability to clean the glass.
Doncic is obviously one of the best rebounding guards in the NBA and since the Mavericks aren’t a great rebounding team, it feels like Doncic takes it upon himself to put more work on the glass. And that has been more apparent recently, with his rebounds per game bumping up to 10.7 over his last 10 contests.
Tonight, he faces a Lakers team that isn’t much better than the Mavs when it comes to rebounding. Los Angeles ranks 16th in rebounding rate, but because the Lakers aren't a good shooting team and play at a high pace, that means a lot of rebounds are up for grabs. As a result, they rank 26th in opponent rebounds per game and give up the third-most rebounds per game to opposing guards.
With Doncic hauling down double-digit boards five times in his last seven games, he looks like a great bet to do so in tonight’s matchup against the Lakers.
Luka Doncic Prop: Over 9.5 rebounds (-120)
Board stiff
Let’s make it a perfect three-for-three when it comes to rebounding props today. This time by looking at the matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Portland Trail Blazers.
Thanks in large part to their twin towers of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA. Cleveland ranks seventh in rebounding rate and second in opponent rebounds per game. That means it could be tough sledding tonight for Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic.
Nurkic is a solid big man, averaging 14.5 points and 10.1 rebounds per game for Portland this season and he has grabbed double-digit boards in three straight games. But those games were against average to plain bad rebounding teams (Orlando, Toronto, and Indiana).
Nurkic plays hard, but he’s the Blazers' only true center who gets significant minutes and could get run ragged by the Cavs' dynamic big-man duo.
In the 12 games prior, Nurkic was averaging 8.5 rebounds per game and was held to nine rebounds or fewer nine times over that stretch, and I like his chances to fall below his rebounding number of 9.5 in this one.
Jusuf Nurkic Prop: Under 9.5 rebounds (+108)
