Lakers vs Rockets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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29 January 2024

Lakers vs Rockets Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Lakers' recent surge has them climbing up the West standings, with D'Angelo Russell red hot from deep. The Rockets come into this game in a funk, and our NBA picks believe L.A. will take care of business on the road.

How much faith are you willing to put into the last two weeks? When pondering the Los Angeles Lakers, that is the driving question. The Lakers have gone 5-2 over the last couple of weeks to jump from 11th in the Western Conference to No. 9, obviously a significant shift heading into the trade deadline.

But should that run overshadow the previous three months, or at least the month directly leading into this surge? Los Angeles was terrible, hence standing at No. 11 in the West. Its net rating in the month before this rally ranked No. 25 in the NBA, more than four points per 100 possessions worse than the Houston Rockets.

Debating which version of L.A. to believe in tonight determines my free NBA picks as I preview the Lakers vs Rockets on January 29. Be sure to also keep an eye on the live movement up to tip-off with our NBA odds page.

Lakers vs Rockets odds

Lakers vs Rockets predictions

From mid-December to mid-January, the Los Angeles Lakers gave up 6.5 points more than they scored per 100 possessions. That was worse than the Spurs and Grizzlies, barely even ahead of the Wizards. A 15-game stretch, a Lakers’ apologist cannot point to sample size to excuse those realities.

The Houston Rockets were not playing well, but it was still much closer to even than Los Angeles.

But since mid-January, the Lakers have become the No. 6 team in the NBA in net rating, ahead of the Nuggets, Timberwolves and Thunder. And the Rockets have fallen off — No. 16 in the NBA — effectively playing seven games to a draw despite going 2-5 in them.

Houston might actually be playing worse than 2-5 sounds, certainly worse than a -0.2 net rating would imply. The Rockets blew out the Hornets 138-104 thanks to Charlotte’s putrid defense. In the five games before that, they had been outscored by 6.5 points per 100 possessions.

Recency bias is a very real risk in sports gambling, but in the NBA, spotting a team’s short-term trend line is a sharp way to profit. It's a long season and there are ebbs and flows: identifying them can be tricky and knowing when to abandon them is crucial, but those are the tricks of the trade.

Solving those tricks usually hinges on figuring out the underlying cause to a surge or a struggle. When it comes to the Lakers looking like a Western Conference contender, the cause may be D’Angelo Russell.

The oft-doubted point guard has averaged 25.9 points and 6.1 assists while shooting 54.1% from beyond the arc since Jan. 14. A cynic might suggest Russell is simply showing off before the trade deadline to enhance his value, something he did a year ago in Minnesota.

Russell will get plenty of opportunity to keep chucking at Houston tonight. In the last two weeks, Rockets’ opponents have taken more than 40% of their field goals from beyond the arc — making a worthwhile 36.7% of them.

If Russell has been a key to Los Angeles’ surge into genuine playoff consideration, and if part of Houston’s failure has been 3-point defense, then those trend lines should fit well tonight. With this spread within a point, there is no need to get creative. Simply trust those trend lines.

My best bet:Lakers moneyline (-110 at Caesars)

Lakers vs Rockets same-game parlay

Lakers -1

D'Angelo Russell Over 2.5 threes

LeBron James Over 7.5 assists

Obviously this is all correlated. The Rockets give up plenty of looks from deep. If you give DLo chances from three, he's going to convert them. Hitting more than 54% of his threes while taking nearly nine a game in the last two weeks is the kind of hot streak that once landed him a max contract.

And if Russell is cashing from deep, that likely means LeBron James is racking up assists. James is unsurprisingly the leading passer for the Lakers, and his potential assists become assists more often when Russell is hot like this.

While the SGP algorithm certainly anticipates that kind of correlation, it can be argued it does not embrace it strongly enough, creating value here even in this repeated endorsement of Los Angeles.

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Lakers vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis

Most of the odds board has kept Los Angeles as a one-point favorite since opening the line on Sunday evening.

Houston’s struggles extend past Jan. 14, a date selected to coincide with the Lakers' surge. The Rockets are 3-8 against the spread since Jan. 8, including 2-5 ATS as underdogs. This return to earth may have always been expected after Houston’s strong start, but it has still been a bit more severe than anticipated.

This total opened at 227.5 either late Sunday night or early Monday morning, depending on your sportsbook, before jumping to 230 during your morning coffee and to 232.5 in the early afternoon.

Consider that further faith in Los Angeles’ ability to score from deep and score from deep often.