Lakers vs Hawks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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30 January 2024

Lakers vs Hawks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Lakers' season hasn't gone as planned, and Darvin Ham's seat is getting hotter and hotter. LeBron is still LeBron though, and our NBA picks expect him to facilitate for his team tonight with AD sitting out.

Things are going badly for the Los Angeles Lakers. They may have officially lost by just 16 points last night to the Rockets, but they trailed by more than 30 in the third quarter. Only garbage time made that final deficit at all redeemable, if it even managed that.

Then again, things have been going badly for the Atlanta Hawks for most of the season. The best piece of evidence of their struggles is how any trade deadline conversation includes extensive time spent on Dejounte Murray’s future, once the piece the Hawks thought could turn them into a contender. Atlanta is supposed to be an offensive power, but it ranks No. 25 in offensive rating this month.

Following L.A.'s embarrassing showing in H-Town, it's the home side who has been labeled as the favorite according to NBA odds.

Neither of these teams is enjoying life right now, but the rules of basketball dictate one of them ends tonight in a better mood. Find out who I think that will be in my free NBA picks for the Lakers vs. Hawks on January 30.

Lakers vs Hawks odds

Lakers vs Hawks predictions

Good luck, Darvin Ham. You need it.

The greater flaw in the Los Angeles Lakers organization may have been giving LeBron James so much influence on the Los Angeles roster, but James will not be the fall guy. If anyone’s career is going to be damaged, it is Ham’s. And going .500 this year after a 43-39 regular season last season has certainly not elevated Ham beyond reproach.

Getting blown out by the Rockets may have been the final straw for Ham. That is obviously mere speculation, but it would make sense to not fire anyone with a game tonight, even if that was a bafflingly bad showing.

To a very real degree, that doubt in the locker room’s psyche inspires enough doubt here to not bet the Lakers to win tonight. Instead, betting on James to play well enough to avoid extensive criticism should fit this thought process.

Los Angeles had been playing better of late, now 5-3 since Jan. 15, and in four of those games, James handed out at least eight assists — including double-digit setups in each of the last three outings.

Some of that has coincided with D’Angelo Russell shining in the weeks before the trade deadline for the second year in a row, and given the Atlanta Hawks' middling defense, Russell should again excel from deep.

On the second night of a back-to-back, Russell will be counted on doubly so by Los Angeles thanks to Anthony Davis becoming a Tuesday-afternoon scratch. Russell’s player props were obviously inflated by that decision, but a specific LeBron thought fell.

On the second night of a back-to-back, James may not be as aggressive offensively. Without Davis, he will presumably play in the lane a bit more. Both of those possibilities should lead to Bron passing more, setting up his teammates with the best looks his basketball IQ can find. If Russell is dialed in, that will help James top his assists prop.

Russell has been dialed in the last few weeks. The loss of Davis tonight may cost James a few assists that direction, but with his back to the basket, LeBron should still find plenty of open teammates. Sportsbooks over-corrected in lowering his assists prop from Over 7.5 at -140 to -120.

Let’s capitalize on that value. Finding assists tonight will save LBJ's legs after playing 37 minutes last night, not that he has needed that reasoning to rack up the passes this week.

My best bet:LeBron James Over 7.5 assists (-120 at DraftKings)

Lakers vs Hawks same-game parlay

LeBron James Over 7.5 assists

D'Angelo Russell Over 3.5 made threes

Lakers first-half moneyline

Russell shot badly in last night’s loss and still notched the Over on his 3-pointers prop, going 3-for-12 from beyond the arc to clear a mark of Over 2.5. Russell has hit 4.2 threes per game this month, taking nearly nine and shooting 47.2% from deep. And that all includes last night’s relative struggles.

Without Davis in the lineup, the Lakers will need Russell to deliver, hence his threes prop rising to 3.5. But with that at plus money, it is worth including here. James will find Russell because he knows how well the oft-doubted point guard is shooting right now.

And that duo should give Los Angeles a bounce-back spark after last night’s debacle. There may not be enough confidence in Ham to endorse an outright upset tonight, but a first-half surge feels within reach.

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Lakers vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis

After the loss at Houston on Monday, Davis said he expected to play today, as did James. Thus, sportsbooks opened this spread with the Hawks favored by just four points. That began ticking upward on Tuesday morning, up to -5 or -5.5 depending on your sportsbook, as Los Angeles’ lack of an early availability report created reasonable suspicion that one of the two superstars would indeed be held out.

When Davis was announced out, the spread settled with Atlanta favored by 6.0 hardly a significant jump because, again, it was somewhat expected by mid-morning.

Davis’s night off raised the total, opening at 244.5 late on Monday and climbing to 248 by Tuesday midmorning, then falling to 247 once the news was public. The initial climb was the better indicator of Davis’ impact, sharp bettors reading their tea leaves before the Lakers made the news public.