Lakers vs Timberwolves Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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21 December 2023

Lakers vs Timberwolves Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The veteran Lakers are likely to feel the pinch of the second half of a back-to-back plus travel when they face a young, hungry Timberwolves team on Thursday night, and our NBA betting picks will tell you exactly how to take advantage.

The Minnesota Timberwolves saw their three-game winning streak snapped by an MVP-caliber performance by Joel Embiid on Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers continued their recent erratic play, falling to the Chicago Bulls despite strong performances by both LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The NBA odds have the T-Wolves as sizable home favorites.

But there’s no rest for the wicked or time to dwell on what might have been had a few bounces gone their way last night, as the Lakers and Timberwolves both must rally immediately to play each other on Thursday, December 21.

My free NBA picks for Lakers vs. Timberwolves believe that Minnesota’s young legs and bruising style give them the edge with both teams on a back-to-back.

Lakers vs Timberwolves odds

Lakers vs Timberwolves predictions

It’s unusual for a marquee matchup like this one to be scheduled where both teams are on a back-to-back, but then again, few NBA analysts believed the Minnesota Timberwolves rather than a team like the Los Angeles Lakers would be sitting atop the Western Conference standings just before Christmas.

Both teams are playing with no rest in this one, which typically makes for sloppy play, defensive breakdowns, and poor shooting. On the other hand, both teams are going to be highly motivated to stop their slide.

The Lakers have lost four of their five games since being crowned In-Season Tournament champions and while injuries have played a role, it’s been far from the sole cause.

Close losses to the Dallas Mavericks and New York Knicks aren’t cause for alarm, but a blowout defeat to the San Antonio Spurs (who were losers of 18 straight) and a 16-point loss to the Chicago Bulls last night surely set sirens blaring throughout Hollywood.

The Timberwolves, meanwhile, have been cutting through the rest of the NBA like a hot knife through butter, until last night. They suffered their worst defeat of the season as Joel Embiid went supernova and overwhelmed their previously-impenetrable defense.

Both teams will find it grueling to have played last night in the Eastern Conference only to make the trip to Minnesota to play Thursday, but the consequences of that quick turnaround will be felt far more acutely by the Lakers. The Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games with no days of rest in-between.

The Lakers are far more dependent on LeBron James than the Timberwolves are on any single player. While Anthony Davis has certainly had moments (including the IST final) where he was the best player for L.A., the offense largely falls apart in James’ absence. The Lakers’ stars are also older or have the health of much older players, who suffer more in games such as this one.

Mike Conley and perhaps Rudy Gobert being more limited because of fatigue is simply not relevant in the same way that LeBron being limited is. Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns' young legs should fare just fine, as should those of Jaden McDaniels.

Davis also rolled his ankle badly enough in the third quarter that he had to leave the game last night. Will he suit up in a back-to-back situation? I think it just as likely that like Jayson Tatum last night, Davis will find the ankle stiffens and swells more as they flew overnight, and he may very well be forced to sit out Thursday entirely.

Obviously, if AD is out, the Wolves will obliterate the Lakers backup bigs including Jaxon Hayes, and then this line will balloon well past this -6.5 mark. With that potential as well as all the other factors at play, I like Minnesota to cover on Thursday.

My best bet: Timberwolves -6.5 (-105 at Pinnacle)

Lakers vs Timberwolves same-game parlay

Timberwolves -6.5

Anthony Edwards 20+ points

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 9.5 rebounds

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Working on the same theory from my best bet that the Timberwolves will fare better in this back-to-back matchup than the Lakers, I’m going with the two young Minnesota stars for the other two legs of my same-game parlay.

At times last night, it felt like the Lakers guards were overmatched by the likes of Alex Caruso and Coby White. They just aren’t in the same stratosphere as Edwards, so it’s easy to see him creating consistent mismatches and getting all the way to the rim.

And then assuming LeBron plays, which is not a guarantee given the rest situation, he’ll be in energy conservation mode early in this one. It’s not a criticism so much as a fact of life that at his age, in order to summon moments of true basketball greatness that he does every game, he is forced to pick his spots.

Towns is positioned to benefit on the glass, as LeBron won’t be able to contest the glass for 40 minutes at a high level. Towns is also rebounding at his highest rate in three seasons and has had 10 or more boards in seven of his last 10 games.

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Lakers vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis

The Timberwolves opened between 4.5 and 5.5-point favorites, and the line quickly grew to -6.5 at most sportsbooks. That’s a touch too light to my mind, with the Lakers' track record of underperforming in the second leg of back-to-backs. Minnesota has also been a dominant home team throughout this young season, going 8-3-1 against the spread at home so far.

The matchup would be difficult for the Lakers even if both teams were rested. The T-Wolves have been the best team in the Western Conference this entire season, and arguably one of the two or three best overall.

They have immense size and length at every position except point guard, and they’re committed to making the most of the regular season in a way a former championship team like the Lakers simply can’t compete with. They’re hungry to win every regular season game and their recent win over the Miami Heat proved they are a resilient group as well. Per Cleaning the Glass, Minnesota’s 8.1-point differential is 7.3 points per 100 possessions better than the Lakers on the season.

Unsurprisingly, oddsmakers have pegged Thursday’s contest as likely to be a low-scoring affair with the total opening at between 224.5 and 225 with little movement to speak of. The Wolves are the No.1 defense in the NBA, and while the Lakers have slipped to eighth with their struggles of late, they’re still among the league’s elite when Davis is on the court.

On the other hand, the Lakers have played in some high-scoring games on the road. The Over has cashed in 10 of their 15 away games this season.