Lakers vs Trail Blazers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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17 November 2023

Lakers vs Trail Blazers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Shaedon Sharpe is in the midst of a stretch where he's taking a significant amount of attempts from long range. Read more to find out why Rob Paul is targeting the sophomore's 3-point total tonight in our Lakers vs. Trail Blazers betting picks.

In a Friday night game out west, the LA Lakers need a victory against the lowly Portland Trail Blazers to keep up in the feisty west, but it might not be the walk in the park that the NBA odds suggest.

While Chauncey Billups' squad isn’t lighting up the scoreboard, they’ve been able to keep scoring at a minimum throughout their first 11 games of the season. Their key to keeping it close will be scoring enough themselves on offense, and that responsibility lies in the hands of 20-year-old budding star Shaedon Sharpe

Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Trail Blazers on Friday, November 17.

Lakers vs Trail Blazers odds

Lakers vs Trail Blazers predictions

There's absolutely no doubt that Jerami Grant is the Portland Trail Blazers most consistent player and scorer. He’s been their engine on offense this season, an offense that ranks dead last in the NBA in points at 104.7 per game.

However, for the Blazers to keep it close against LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers, it can’t fall just on the shoulders of Grant… Shaedon Sharpe is going to need plenty of touches and to put up a plethora of shots. That’s why the Over 2.5 threes made line sticks out.

While the second-year lottery pick hasn’t just been a primary starter for Billups, he’s leading the league in minutes per game at 38.5 and his usage rate has jumped from 18.6% last season to 22.3% this season. Portland knows Sharpe and rookie Scoot Henderson are the most important players on their roster, and their development will come through playing.

As a result, Sharpe’s points per game have jumped from 9.9 as a rookie to 18.7 as a sophomore, thanks in part to the uptick in shots from behind the arc. This season, he’s taking 6.5 per game and making 2.2 (33.8%) after making 1.3 on 3.5 threes per game last season.

While his 3-point percentage isn’t anything to get excited about, the frequency in which Sharpe is allowed to let it fly makes his 3-point prop enticing. This offense is so bad that he’s essentially got the green light to shoot from Eugene.

This season, Sharpe has taken at least four threes in every game and is coming off a three-game stretch where he’s averaged seven attempts per game. While his percentage remains iffy, he’s still managed to hit at least three threes in four of 11 games (36%) and is taking on a Lakers team that’s struggled to defend the three.

LA has been extremely lackluster defensively to start the season, allowing 115.9 points per game and sitting 23rd in opponent 3-point percentage. Sharpe is also in an advantageous position considering the Lakers are allowing 3.67 threes per game from shooting guards, eighth worst in the NBA.

Starting shooting guards have not been shy about taking threes against the Lakers, averaging six attempts per game and making 2.5 (41.6%). In an earlier matchup against the Lakers this season, Sharpe went three of six from behind the line.

With Henderson still recovering from an ankle injury, Billups knows his team’s chances live and die by Grant and Sharpe.

My best bet: Shaedon Sharpe Over 2.5 threes made (+118)

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Lakers vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay

Shaedon Sharpe Over 2.5 threes made

LeBron James Over 23.5 points

Under 223.5

In what’s expected to be a smooth Lakers win, LA is going to need LeBron to come to play, especially after Anthony Davis’ tough outing against the Sacramento Kings. The big man went just three of nine from the field with five turnovers and finished with just nine points.

On the other hand, LeBron continues to be an ageless wonder averaging 24.6 points per game at 38 years old. He’s had at least 24 points in six of 11 games this season and is coming off a 28-point performance against Sacramento.

This is also a Trail Blazers team that didn’t have to deal with James the first time around as he rested against them.

While I'm banking on Sharpe to be efficient from the field and James to be scoring for LA, neither of these teams has been anything to write home about on offense. The Lakers are 16th in points per game at 112.8 and the Blazers come into this one dead-last at 104.7.

So, despite needing Sharpe and James to show up, the Under still plays. This is especially the case considering Portland is allowing just 111.7 points per game (11th best in the league).

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Lakers vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis

After opening with the Lakers as 7.5-point favorites, most books have shifted a point with LA sitting at -8.5.

James’ squad has been one of the worst against the spread this season. They’re 4-8, second worst in the league, and coming off a loss to the Kings in which they were favored. The Lakers also didn’t cover the 8.5-point spread the first time they played Portland this season.

The Blazers are slightly better ATS this season at 5-6. However, they've been an underdog in every game to start the year.

The game total for this Friday night fight opened at 22.25 and has moved to 223.5 at most books. The Lakers are 5-7 when betting the Over and the Blazers come in at 5-6 to the O/U. It's important to note that Portland has only hit the Over once this season when it was listed above 222.

Lakers vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know

The Trail Blazers have only cashed the moneyline in 26 of their last 79 games (-18.45 Units / -17% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Trail Blazers.