Trail Blazers vs Grizzlies Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight; NBA

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02 March 2024

Trail Blazers vs Grizzlies Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight; NBA

The Grizzlies can't get any more injured, and our NBA picks are tabbing Anfernee Simons and the Blazers to pounce on wounded prey tonight.

After falling 122-92 to the Portland Trail Blazers in the first game of a two-game series, the Memphis Grizzlies look out of sorts with a depleted roster and an abysmal 20-40 record this season.

Despite the 30-point loss to the Blazers on Friday night, the NBA odds have Memphis as a 2.5-point home favorite in round two of a matchup that could be without as many as 10 key players.

Find out where my best bets lie in our free NBA picks and predictions for Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies on Saturday, March 2.

Trail Blazers vs Grizzlies odds

Trail Blazers vs Grizzlies predictions

No roster has been zapped by injuries as much as the Memphis Grizzlies this season. Without All-Star Ja Morant, the sky has been falling on Taylor Jenkins’ team. Not only is Morant done for the season, but Memphis is currently down Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, and Marcus Smart.

To make matters worse, the Grizz have Jaren Jackson Jr., Luke Kennard, John Konchar, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Derrick Rose listed as day-to-day. That’s about as bad as it gets, and how a team ends up losing by double digits to a squad as dreadful as the Portland Trail Blazers have been this season.

The Blazers win on Friday night against Memphis was just its 16th of the season, but it should be in position to add a 17th W on Saturday with what the Grizzlies are expected to throw out on the court. To pull off the win, Portland will need its best from leading scorer Anfernee Simons.

The former 24th overall pick is putting up a career-high 22.1 points per game in his sixth season with the Trail Blazers and has been Portland’s go-to playmaker all season. Simons leads the Blazers in usage rate (27.9%) and ranks 24th in the league among players who have played at least 30 games.

There’s even more on Simons’ plate now, with Malcolm Brogdon, Scoot Henderson, and Shaedon Sharpe all out and Deandre Ayton listed as day-to-day after missing last night’s game against the Grizzlies.

While Memphis ranks among the top defenses in the NBA this season, allowing the ninth-fewest points (112.9) and sitting 10th in defensive rating, Simons won’t have to deal with the lineup that’s been holding teams to such few points.

Last night’s lineup of Ziaire Williams, Santi Aldama, Jordan Goodwin, Trey Jemison, and Vince Williams Jr. was pushed around by the Blazers, who had lost nine straight prior to the win. In the third quarter alone, Portland put up 40 points and shot 78.9% from the field with six players finishing in double digits and the team hitting 41.9% of its threes for the game.

“We did it together," Blazers coach Chauncey Billups said after the game. "It's just good to kind of get that monkey off your back, if you will. We've been playing so hard, and I think we've been playing well. We just haven't been able to come out with a victory for quite a while. So, it's good for that to happen for us.”

Perimeter defense has been an issue for Memphis all season, healthy or not, it’s allowed opponents to shoot 37.9% from behind the arc, 24th in the league, and that sets Simons up well. The 24-year-old doesn’t just lead Portland in shots with 18.2 per game, he’s also taking by far the most threes with 8.6 and connecting on 37.7% of them.

Between Simons’ high volume of shots, Memphis’ issues defending the three, and few starters being healthy for this game, the Blazers young guard is in perfect position to take over.

My best bet: Anfernee Simons Over 23.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Trail Blazers vs Grizzlies same-game parlay

Simons Over 23.5 pointsJerami Grant Over 1.5 threes made

Trail Blazers moneyline

With so few starters and bench players available for this game, Jerami Grant is, by far, the next-most-prolific scorer after Simons. While he doesn’t pull from deep nearly as frequently as Simons, Grant is the Blazers’ most efficient 3-point shooter taking the court in this game.

The former second-round pick out of Syracuse is hitting 40.4% of his threes this season on 5.2 attempts per game. He’s averaging 2.1 makes per outing and has hit at least two threes in 30 of 51 games this season, including all three previous matchups with Memphis.

If Simons and Grant bring their best to this game, Portland should be capable of pulling off a second straight win with how few players Memphis has available. The Blazers only have 16 wins, but two of them have come against a down-on-its-luck Grizzlies team.

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Trail Blazers vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis

Despite the Grizzlies’ gruesome amount of injuries heading into game-two of this back-to-back, Memphis opened as a 1.5-point home favorite with most books now favoring the Grizz by 2 to 2.5.

These are two of the worst teams in the NBA, both in terms of record and profitability ATS. Memphis is 29-31 ATS and 5-2 in its last seven, but 0-5 in the last five games it’s been favored in. Portland has been even worse, going 26-32 ATS and 1-7 in its last eight games.

With these being two of the lowest-scoring teams in the NBA, and with both losing valuable players to injury, the game total opened as low as 206.5. It has since trended up, with most books offering it between 208 and 209.5.

Neither team has been a solid Over bet this season with Memphis being just 26-33-1 betting the Over and Portland being 27-31. In the three matchups these teams have played this season, the Over is 2-1.

Trail Blazers vs Grizzlies betting trend to know

The Portland Trail Blazers have hit the moneyline in nine of their last 34 away games (+10.05 Units / 29% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Grizzlies.

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