Lakers vs. Warriors odds, prediction, picks: Grab the points with Los Angeles in San Francisco in Game 1
LeBron James, Steph Curry, Anthony Davis, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green.
An NBA playoff series loaded with star power that nobody saw coming a month ago is suddenly a thing. And the only folks more jacked about it than the league’s bean counters and broadcast partners are sportsbook operators.
Those operators are destined to do gangbuster business in this best-of-7 clash of California rivals — especially if it goes the distance.
Round 1 is set for Tuesday night in San Francisco, where Golden State will hit the court as a modest favorite to win its 20th consecutive Western Conference playoff series — an impressive streak that dates back nine years.
The Warriors also are a modest favorite to win Game 1. And while they just might meet oddsmakers’ expectations Tuesday night, our money is on a visiting underdog that’s hungry, well rested and playing defense better than it has all season.
Odds updated as of 10:45 a.m. ET on May 2.
Lakers vs. Warriors Prediction
Lakers +4.5, -106 (at FanDuel)
Lakers vs. Warriors Prediction: Analysis
We actually came close to recommending the Under as our best bet for Game 1.
Not only do the Lakers and Warriors rank 1-2 in field-goal defense in the playoffs, but they’re fourth and second, respectively, in 3-point defense.
Additionally, two of the four Lakers-Warriors regular season battles stayed below the Game 1 posted total; Golden State stayed low in four of its final six games against the Sacramento Kings in the opening round; and Los Angeles enters this series on a 4-1 Under run.
Ultimately, though, the possibility of overtime pushed us in the direction of taking the points with the Lakers. Because we absolutely believe Los Angeles is going to be in Game 1 until the end — if not win it outright.
Not because the Lakers possess the firepower to run-and-gun with Golden State for 48 minutes (even though they do). Rather, our rationale behind this wager is tied to L.A.’s renewed commitment to team defense.
Since the playoffs began — including a 108-102 overtime play-in victory over Minnesota — the Lakers have surrendered more than 104 points in regulation just twice in seven games.
The first was a 128-112 runaway victory at Memphis in Game 1 of the opening round. The second was a 116-99 loss at Memphis in Game 5.
Regulation points L.A. has allowed in its other five postseason contests: 98, 103, 101, 104 and 85.
As already noted, the Lakers lead the NBA in field-goal defense at 40.2%. That doesn’t count the play-in game, but the Timberwolves made just 43% of their shots in that one.
We get it: Led by the greatest shooter of all time (Curry), Golden State’s offense is on an entirely different level — or at least it usually is.
The Warriors averaged a robust 115.9 points per game in their seven-game series against Sacramento. But that was actually three full points below their regular-season average of 118.9 ppg.
Now is when we remind you that only four teams in the league gave up more points in the regular season than the Kings — and none of those four squads made the playoffs.
Speaking of the Sacramento series, Golden State required a monster second half in Game 7 — and a career playoff-high 50 points from Curry — to keep its Western Conference playoff series streak alive.
Even with Sunday’s 120-100 blowout, the Warriors still only went 3-4 ATS in the series (2-3 ATS as a favorite).
The Lakers, meanwhile, arrive in the Bay Area on a 3-1 ATS run.
Los Angeles did get blown out by the Grizzlies in its final two games as an underdog (103-93 in Game 3 and 116-99 in Game 5). However, Memphis had its back pinned up against the wall in both contests — the Grizzlies were down 0-2 heading into Game 3 and 3-1 heading into Game 5.
Golden State has no such sense of urgency Tuesday night — a win by any margin will do just fine. Especially since the Warriors haven’t tasted victory against their Pacific Division rivals since a 123-109 triumph at home on opening night.
That was Oct. 18. Since then, the Lakers are 3-0 SU and ATS against Golden State.
In fairness, Curry only played in one of those losses. But in that particular contest on March 5, he had 27 points and made five of his team’s 18 3-pointers.
Yet the Warriors still lost, 113-105. And they didn’t even have to deal with LeBron, who sat out with an injury.
James is healthy and will be in uniform Tuesday. Just as importantly, he and his teammates will have fresh legs. Los Angeles finished off Memphis on Friday — the same night Sacramento whipped the Warriors 118-99 in Golden State to force Sunday’s Game 7.
We expect the extra rest to be a big key for the Lakers in Game 1, as their defense looks to wear down a fatigued Warriors squad in the fourth quarter.
Will the Lakers spring the upset? It wouldn’t be at all shocking. But we’ll play it safe and take the points FanDuel is offering, as L.A. had cashed in five straight as an underdog prior to Games 3 and 5 against Memphis.
That 5-0 ATS run as a pup? It started with the 113-105 victory over Golden State on March 5.
Point spread: Lakers (+4.5, -106) @ Warriors (-4.5, -114)
Moneyline: Lakers (+164) @ Warriors (-198)
Total: 228 points (Over -108/Under -112)
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