Lakers vs. Warriors prediction, odds, time: 2023 NBA playoff picks, Game 1 best bets by model on 71-38 roll
The fourth conference semifinal series of the 2023 NBA playoffs begins on Tuesday evening. The Los Angeles Lakers take on the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 of a best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal clash. Los Angeles won 43 games during the regular season before defeating the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies in the first round. Golden State won 44 games before knocking off the No. 3 seed Sacramento Kings in a seven-game opening round battle.
Tipoff is at 10 p.m. ET in San Francisco. Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as a 4.5-point favorite at home, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 228 in the latest Lakers vs. Warriors odds. Before locking in any Warriors vs. Lakers picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 71-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Warriors and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Warriors vs. Lakers:
- Lakers vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -4.5
- Lakers vs. Warriors over/under: 228 points
- Lakers vs. Warriors money line: Warriors -180, Lakers +152
- LAL: The Lakers are 20-23-1 against the spread in road games
- GSW: The Warriors are 28-15-1 against the spread in home games
- Lakers vs. Warriors picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game| Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Why the Lakers can cover
The Lakers have plenty of star power on offense, headlined by LeBron James and Anthony Davis. However, Los Angeles is even more stout on defense, as evidenced by the team's performance against Memphis in the first round. The Lakers held the Grizzlies to 102.8 points per 100 possessions in the series, and Los Angeles led the playoffs in the first round with 9.2 blocked shots per game. Los Angeles also gave up only 19.2 free throw attempts per game to Memphis, and that comes after the Lakers led the NBA in allowing only 20.8 attempts per game during the regular season.
The Lakers also finished No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point defense (34.4%) this season, and Los Angeles posted top-10 marks in both field goal percentage allowed (46.9%) and defensive rebound rate (72.3%) this season. Los Angeles can also benefit from Golden State's weaknesses, as the Warriors ranked last in turnover avoidance and free throw creation on offense in 2022-23. See which side to back at SportsLine.
Why the Warriors can cover
The Warriors have the advantage of playing at home in Game 1, with Golden State posting a 33-8 record at Chase Center and out-scoring opponents by 7.7 points per 100 possessions at home this season. The Warriors also bring impressive defensive credentials, but Golden State's offense is very difficult for any opponent to prepare for in a series opener. The Warriors played well on offense in the first round, crashing the offensive glass for 16.1 second-chance points per game and moving the ball at a high level. The pivot point is Stephen Curry, who averaged 33.7 points per game and produced a 62.1% true shooting mark against Sacramento.
That was headlined by a 50-point performance for Curry in Game 7 against the Kings, and he remains the most dangerous perimeter shooter in the world. Curry is flanked by Klay Thompson, who led the NBA with 301 3-pointers this season, and the Warriors led the NBA in 3-pointers (16.6 per game), assists per game (29.8) and assist percentage (69.1%) during the regular season. Golden State also converted more than 56% of 2-point attempts, and the Warriors deploy off-ball movement that can flummox the opposition. See which side to back at SportsLine.
How to make Warriors vs. Lakers picks
The model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 229 points. The model also says one side hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
