Larson, Blaney, Byron, Bell: A NASCAR Final 4 tale of the tape

The white flag has waved on the 2023 season.

And with just one more race to go, Sunday's finale at Phoenix, the only thing left to determine is which driver will claim the NASCAR Cup Series championship.

Certainly, in Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, William Byron and Christopher Bell, we have four worthy combatants, all of whom are capable of winning at Phoenix. Remember, all four finished in the top six in the spring race at Phoenix with Byron and Blaney finishing 1-2.

So, who has the advantage?

That's a loaded question.

Luckily, we've broken it down for you here, complete with each driver's resume´ and cases for and against them all. Will Larson win his second crown? Will a second Championship 4 appearance be the trick for Bell? Can Byron or Blaney win it in their first?

Here's the tale of the tape on this year's Championship 4:

Kyle Larson

• Age: 31
• Current team: No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
• Full-time seasons: 9
• Wins: 23
• Prior Championship 4 appearances: 1
• Championships: 1 (2021)
• Career average finish at Phoenix: 11.7
• Odds: +165

Why he will win: That prior championship is obviously an advantage and Larson should be best equipped to handle the stage. He's the only one to prove that he can get it done in this scenario.

Oh yeah, and he might just be the best driver on Earth right now, considering his successes in just about anything with four wheels. We’re betting his front lawn has an impeccable stripe pattern on it.

He has a win at Phoenix — that 2021 title-winning run — and 11 top 10s in 18 starts. Additionally, after winning at Las Vegas to punch his ticket to the big show in the first race of the Round of 8, he and the No. 5 team have had an extra two weeks to prepare.

Why he won't win: While Larson’s highs are untouched by his three opponents, so are his lows.

He’s had eight finishes of 30 or worse this season, three more than any of the rest of the Championship 4 and that includes one just two weeks ago at Homestead, a race in which he led an event-best 96 laps. Being that fast requires riding on a razor’s edge and sometimes, you’re going to get cut and it’s unlikely Larson will change his driving style anytime soon.

He’s the Vegas favorite, but he’s also the most likely to end up on a wrecker and that’s always risky.

Christopher Bell

• Age: 28
• Current team: No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
• Full-time seasons: 4
• Wins: 6
• Prior Championship 4 appearances: 1
• Championships: 0
• Career average finish at Phoenix: 14.4
• Odds: +450

Why he will win: Nobody in this group is more clutch than Bell, who won two elimination races last year to reach Phoenix and then finished off a victory at Homestead to earn entry this year. Bell and his team also displayed quite a bit of fortitude in that latter win, coming just a few hundred feet from being lapped in Stage 2 only to find speed and track position in the nick of time.

On the surface, his numbers look worse than the other three at Phoenix but that’s a bit misleading. He won there in the Xfinity Series and while he hasn’t led a lap or earned a top five in the Cup Series yet, he’s finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts. Oh, and Joe Gibbs Racing has gone to Victory Lane four times in the desert since 2018.

Why he won’t win: While the potential at Phoenix may be there, Bell hasn’t cashed in on it while the other three have. Larson and Byron have both won there, Blaney has finished second two races in a row.

He also struggled at similar-length tracks in the Cup Series’ last visits. Bell came home 29 at one-mile New Hampshire and was 20 in the summer at Richmond, Phoenix’s sister track.

With four top fives in his last seven starts, none of that may mean anything for Bell. But then again, it might.

Ryan Blaney

• Age: 29
• Current team: No. 12 Team Penske Ford
• Full-team seasons: 8
• Wins: 10
• Prior Championship 4 appearances: 0
• Championships: 0
• Career average finish at Phoenix: 11.9
• Odds: +275

Why he will win: Do you believe in momentum? If so, here’s your guy.

We’ve seen it all year: A driver suddenly finds speed and looks unbeatable over a short stretch. Early in the year it was Byron. Then it was Martin Truex Jr. Shoot, Chris Buescher won three races in a five-race span.

And now it’s Blaney, who found something at Las Vegas, nearly won at Homestead and then finished off a victory at Martinsville. He’s also been the best of late at Phoenix of these four, riding a string of back-to-back, second-place finishes and his 9.3 average finish over the last seven events rank fourth overall and better than Larson, Byron or Bell.

Don’t forget, Blaney may have had the best car in this event last year. Teammate Joey Logano was racing for a title so, understandably, Blaney didn’t force the issue down the stretch. But the Team Penske contingent were in their own zip code.

Why he won’t win: We’ve seen it all year: Momentum is fleeting.

Yes, drivers have had stretches of near invincibility, but the common factor is that all those spans abruptly ended. See: Martin Truex Jr., 2023 playoffs.

Blaney must figure out how to keep the speed and the advantage just one more week. It’s a good track for him, it’s a good spot for him and all signs seem to point to the positive. But we’ve seen performance fall off a cliff several times already this season.

William Byron

• Age: 25
• Current team: No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
• Full-team seasons: 6
• Wins: 10
• Prior Championship 4 appearances: 0
• Championships: 0
• Career average finish at Phoenix: 11.9
• Odds: +320

Why he will win: Nobody has more victories than Byron this year (six) and there’s something to be said for a driver and a team that just find ways to win.

Since back-to-back wins at Las Vegas and Phoenix early in the season, Byron surged to the top of everyone’s short list and has stayed there. He’s dominated at times — Watkins Glen — found ways late to steal wins — Atlanta — and he’s done it at a myriad of different tracks.

And if we’re going to applaud Bell for his resilience at Homestead, the same must be done for Byron, who gutted out a miserable racecar and a grinder at Martinsville just to get here.

Why he won’t win: Since the Glen, Byron’s been good. He hasn't been great.

That includes the entirety of the playoffs as he’s hovered in and around the top five but hasn’t been the dominant car. That was true even in his win at Texas as Bubba Wallace controlled the proceedings but relinquished on a late restart, with Byron taking advantage.

Look, consistently putting yourself in position is advantageous. But with what’s on the line and with the speed the other three possess, it’s unlikely a gift will be given here late. As good as he’s been all year, he’s going to need his best in this one.