2023 NASCAR Martinsville odds, picks and predictions for Xfinity 500 Cup Series playoff race

The Eagle

28 October 2023

2023 NASCAR Martinsville odds, picks and predictions for Xfinity 500 Cup Series playoff race

With one race to go before the NASCAR Cup Series championship finale, it all comes down to the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday.

Six drivers will compete for the two open Final Four spots when the green flag drops on along the 0.526-mile Virginia short track, which is one of the oldest continuously used tracks in American racing history.

Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson already clinched their spots in championship race, which will be held next week at Phoenix, with Round of 8 victories – Bell last week in Homestead-Miami and Larson the week before in Las Vegas.

The other six will have to duel it out Sunday, short-track racing style.

And there are a few scenarios to keep an eye on.

Obviously, win and you’re in. So if any of the remaining six playoff drivers – William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin or Chris Buescher – take the checkered flag, they would advance automatically.

But if someone else wins at Martinsville, it’ll come down to points – which limits the field tremendously.

Byron and Blaney are the only two drivers who could get in on points if there is a repeat playoff or non-playoff winner. Byron just needs 26 points to clinch, while Blaney needs 46.

If Reddick wins, Byron would only need 36 points to become the fourth-and-final Championship 4 driver.

Everyone else would need a lot of help.

So, it’s a “win or go home” mentality when the green flag drops in Martinsville, as FrontPageBets takes a look at the drivers to watch in the Xfinity 500 on Sunday afternoon (2 p.m.; NBC).

Pick to win: Denny Hamlin (+300)

Hamlin, who sits in seventh in points and all but needs to win to get into the championship, will take the green flag at Martinsville with five career Cup wins already under his belt.

The driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota leads the field of active drivers for the most wins at the Virginia short track by two over Martin Truex Jr.

Hamlin, who is from Chesterfield, Va., thinks of Martinsville as another one of his home tracks, along with Richmond.

He not only has five wins there, Hamlin’s also racked up 18 top-5 and 24 top-10 finishes in 35 career starts. His average finish at Martinsville is 10.3. He finished fourth in the regular-season race in April.

Top-3 pick: Kyle Larson (+170)

Larson won the April race in Martinsville as one of his four victories in 2023.

Driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy, Larson has already clinched his spot in next week’s championship race in Phoenix when he won in two weeks ago in Vegas.

In 17 career starts at the 0.526-mile Martinsville circuit, Larson was a late-bloomer, only tallying one top 10 in his first 11 Cup races there. However, in his last six, Larson has four top-10s, including April’s win.

He finished runner up in last year’s playoff race.

Top-10 pick: Martin Truex Jr. (-165)

Truex has won three times in his career at Martinsville, with the most recent coming in 2021.

The regular-season points leader comes into the penultimate race sitting in sixth in points. Meaning, the driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota most likely needs a win to get in.

In 35 career starts at Martinsville, Truex has an average finish of 16.0. He has 10 top-5 and 16-top 10 finishes to go along with those three wins, which came in a span of four races from 2019-2021.