Latest MLB Playoff Odds: Cubs Have Much More Work to Do Before Opening Day
MLB PLAYOFF ODDS — Yesterday, PECOTA released their 2024 MLB projections with the Cubs winding up in the range of 80-wins and 31.2% shot at the playoffs.
Our reaction? On an individual level, the pitching projections feel light for some of the Cubs best arms. But overall, the team totals and odds are probably fair. Obviously, we can continue to hope the Cubs have another big move in them before the regular season. But as of today, it’s just a fact that not enough has been done. This is a crazy-winnable division and the Cubs are not particularly close to being the projected winners.
And the recently released odds and win totals at FanGraphs underscore that assessment.
NL Central Projections (MLB Playoff Odds):
- Cardinals: 84.4-77.6 (55.6%)
- Cubs: 81.5-80.5 (37%)
- Brewers: 80.8-81.2 (33.3%)
- Reds: 79.4-82.6 (25.6%)
- Pirates: 77.3-84.7 (16.5%)
Look at this mess of a division. The highest projected team is barely overall .500 and the gap between first and last is just seven wins.
Even if the Cubs do go out and get Cody Bellinger, it could feel like they missed an opportunity to absolutely dust their NL Central competition with an ultra-aggressive offseason. But that’s this front office’s entire M.O., right? If value is the name of the game, you’re going to be happiest by winning/making the tournament with the smallest margin possible (in other words, committing the least to maximize results), if it means you have a better shot to do it again the next year, and the next year, and the next year. I understand the logic there — you’re preserving flexibility — but I disagree with the approach when the division looks like this. It’s safe, but it’s cowardly. And most of all, it’s boring.
Drilling down on those MLB playoff odds, here’s how FanGraphs itemizes the NL Central Division and Wild Card odds:
- Cardinals: 38.3%, 17.2%
- Cubs: 21.3%, 15.8%
- Brewers: 19.1%, 14.2%
- Reds: 13.2%, 12.3%
- Pirates: 8.0%, 8.5%
Again, Cody Bellinger would help, and there are plenty of upside plays on the 2024 Cubs that won’t be fully captured by the conservative nature of projections, but this is weak (also, other teams have players who can pop, too). It is on the front office to improve before Opening Day.
MLB Playoff Odds
Let’s do a quick look at the rest of the projected winners across the league, via FanGraphs.
AL East: Yankees (88.3-73.7)
AL Central: Twins (84.9-77.1)
AL West: Astros (90.7-71.3)
AL WC1: Mariners (86.1-75.9)
AL WC2: Rays (85.1-76.9)
AL WC3: Orioles (84.7-77.3)
I think some of these win totals are light too, but I agree with the general outcomes. These seem like the best six teams in the American League, with maybe only the Rangers getting a bit of an overlook.
NL East: Braves (98.2-63.8)
NL Central: Cardinals (84.4-77.6)
NL West: Dodgers (94.5-67.5)
NL WC1: Phillies (85.5-76.5)
NL WC2: Diamondbacks (84.4-77.6)
NL WC3: Cubs (81.5-80.5)
Technically, the Cubs are projected to sneak into the playoffs as the final Wild Card team, but they only narrowly beat out the Marlins (81.3), Mets (81.3), Padres (81.2), and Brewers (80.8). So I wouldn’t really claim any great victories there.
Michael Cerami began covering the Chicago Cubs for Bleacher Nation as a part-time contributor in 2015. One year later, he joined Bleacher Nation full-time, covering the Chicago Cubs and Major League Baseball. Today, Michael runs Bleacher Nation, contributing as a writer (Cubs, MLB) and an editor for all sections of the site, including the Chicago Bears, Bulls, and Blackhawks, as well as MLB, NBA, NHL, and NFL.In 2019, Michael was the co-host of NBC Sports Chicago's Cubs Post-Game Show Outside the Ivy. You can find him on Twitter/X @Michael_Cerami
