LeBron James scoring record odds: LBJ favoured to break Kareem’s NBA points mark at home

From one Laker to another, the NBA’s all-time scoring record will soon change hands.

The latest: LeBron James sits 89 points shy of breaking the league’s total points record, which is currently held by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Given his season scoring pace (30.2 points/game), James is likely just a few games away from making history.

Check out the latest LeBron scoring odds, with a look at the games in which he’s most likely to top Abdul-Jabbar’s record.

LeBron scoring odds

Odds as of 3:10 p.m. ET on 02/01/2023.

LeBron scoring odds: Most likely game to set record

The co-favourites: Feb. 7 vs. Thunder (+115), Feb. 9 vs. Bucks (+115)

James and the Lakers have two games to go on a five-game road trip, after which the Thunder and Bucks come to L.A. If James plays in the two upcoming road games, his season-long scoring pace would suggest he’ll break the record on either Feb. 7 or Feb. 9.

Conveniently, those are L.A.’s only two home games between now and Valentine’s Day. It’s certainly not a requirement for James to break the record in front of a home crowd, but we imagine all parties involved would prefer it that way.

The potential curveball here is that James could rest at the tail end of this long road trip, as some vets in the league are known to do.

But he already sat out on Monday, and he hasn’t sat out twice in the same road trip all season (except when he was legitimately injured). So an additional dose of load management seems unlikely.

Judging James’ likelihood of breaking the record against either the Pacers or the Bucks, we’ll side with the Bucks.

James would have to score at or near his scoring average in three consecutive games to break the record before facing Milwaukee, and he’s fallen well below that mark in games against the Pelicans (20 points on Nov. 2) and Pacers (21 points on Nov. 28) this year.

Other shots for LeBron to pass Kareem

Feb. 11 vs. Warriors (+300)

A bet on James to break the scoring record against the Warriors is probably a bet on him missing one game beforehand.

And although we don’t believe that’s the probable outcome, it’s certainly possible. Earlier this month, James sat twice in a four-game span and neither of those games was tied to a back-to-back.

In the event that James plays all four upcoming games before meeting the Warriors, he’d simply need to average fewer than 22.0 points per game in those contests in order for the Feb. 11 game to be in play.

Since Dec. 9, James has scored 22 or fewer points just once in 24 games. We’re not banking on a cold streak now that the record is within reach.

Any other game (+800)

LeBron would have to go berserk to hit on this option, but he’s got enough old man strength to get the record before heading back to L.A.

On Dec. 30, his 38th birthday, James scored 47 points in Atlanta. He followed that up with a 43-point performance three nights later in Charlotte.

So at least we’ve seen him score 88-plus points in a two-game span. Are you really gonna doubt the King?

Taking the “any other game” market also allows for the unfortunate possibility of an injury.

We have no way of predicting injuries, of course, but that risk is present in every game. If James sprained an ankle or something and had to miss time, these 8-to-1 odds would suddenly look very appealing.