Leeds relegation odds, fixtures and how Whites can avoid drop from Premier League to Championship
It's a relegation 'Groundhong Day' for Leeds United, who once again find themselves battling to avoid dropping out of the English top-flight this season.
The side managed by American Jesse Marsch secured an incredible final day survival act during the 2021/22 campaign, thanks to a 2-1 win away at Brentford.
The club is back in a relegation scrap in 2022/23, and after Marsch was sacked in February, former Watford head coach Javi Gracia was brought on a short-term deal in an attempt to repeat the feat from a year ago.
Despite initial optimism over Gracia being able to solidify the team, Leeds remain in the same position as they were under Marsch, with a nail-biting run-in expected at Elland Road. They're hoping it's as thrilling a finish as last season.
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) May 22, 2022
Leeds United's remaining Premier League fixtures 2022/23
Leeds have five Premier League games remaining to try and muster enough points to avoid Premier League relegation, but the task ahead looks difficult for Gracia and his players.
April 30 vs Bournemouth (Away)
Leeds head to fellow relegation rivals Bournemouth in one of three away Premier League matches during their run-in, with Gary O'Neil's side currently four points above the drop zone.
Based on previous survival averages, Bournemouth are likely to need just one more win to reach the safety mark of 36 points, but the Cherries have lost successive home games, against West Ham and Brighton.
Leeds' away form does little to inspire confidence they can become the next team to win at the Vitality Stadium, with just one Premier League win on the road since the start of 2023. A draw would benefit the hosts' cause far more than Leeds.
May 6 vs Manchester City (Away)
Manchester City claimed a stranglehold on the Premier League title race with a superb 4-1 win over current league leaders Arsenal on April 26, as Pep Guardiola looks to overtake the Gunners in the table, and keep on track for a potential treble this season.
Leeds have conceded 14 goals, and lost their last three Premier League clashes with City, and the champions have lost just once at home in Premier League action this season.
May 13 vs Newcastle United (Home)
Champions League chasers Newcastle head to Elland Road looking to solidify their top four status and Leeds will need something from this match to keep alive their survival hopes.
Gracia will be positive of a possible result after Leeds drew 0-0 at St. James' Park under Marsch at the end of 2022. A big result here for Leeds could tip the balance in the relegation fight if the Whites can capitalise on home-field advantage.
May 21 vs West Ham United (Away)
West Ham find themselves edging closer to Premier League safety, with David Moyes' gritty experience dragging the Hammers over the line, alongside the potential of a European final on the horizon (Europa Conference League).
If West Ham are already safe, that could change the complexion of this matchup, but if they still need points, Leeds' away record will again be a negative factor.
May 28 vs Tottenham (Home)
Despite Tottenham's strength on paper, the ongoing chaos at Spurs will give Leeds hope on the final day, with the already visitors onto their third manager this season.
A last-day win at Brentford saved the day in 2022/23, but the tight nature of the race to avoid relegation means Leeds could need all three points in their last match to avoid slipping through the trap door.
Leeds United Premier League relegation odds
According to projections by FiveThirtyEight), Leeds are tipped as the fourth most likely team to be relegated, which would equal a narrow survival, if the projections are correct.
The current picture has Southampton, Everton and Nottingham Forest dropping out of the Premier League, with Gracia's Leeds and Leicester City narrowly escaping the drop.
Premier League table: The bottom nine
*Standings correct as of April 29, 2023
Premier League latest relegation odds 2022/23
Here are the latest relegation odds available at the various sportsbooks around the world.
*Odds updated as of April 29, 2023.
Relegation probabilities
ESPN's FiveThirtyEight also projects the relegation probability for each club on a week-to-week basis, with Leeds on a steady downward slope.
The optimism of four points from three Premier League games in March saw the dial shift to just a 10% likelihood of relegation. But one win and four losses has seen the picture change, with a 45% chance of ending the season inside the bottom three.
