Liberty vs Kennesaw State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Atlantic Sun Conference Championship

Kennesaw State managed to upset the Flames during the regular season but in the ASUN title game, our college basketball betting picks expect Libety's talent to prove too much — read more below.

The Liberty Flames will try to win their fourth conference title in five years when they visit the Kennesaw State Owls in the ASUN Championship Game on Sunday afternoon.

Liberty (26-7) has won five straight games heading into Sunday’s contest and is highly regarded by a number of advanced metrics. Kennesaw State (25-8) has won four in a row and is making its first appearance in the ASUN title game. 

With no realistic chance of an at-large bid, both teams need today’s game to get into the NCAA Tournament. We’ll break down how this one will play out in our college basketball betting picks for Liberty vs. Kennesaw State below.

Liberty vs Kennesaw State best odds

Liberty vs Kennesaw State picks and predictions

Over the past five years, the Liberty Flames has become the powerhouse of the ASUN Conference. The Flames won the conference title three straight years from 2019-2021 and are now favored to pick up a fourth title on Sunday.

In fact, Liberty has been so good this year that you could make an argument that it should be receiving some at-large consideration for the NCAA Tournament if it loses on Sunday.

The Flames rank 40th in the NCAA’s preferred NET rankings, while KenPom has them at 44th in the country. It’s not a particularly strong argument — Liberty has only one Quad 2 win and no Quad 1 wins this season — but it’s a sign of how far this program has come that it will likely make the NIT even with a loss in the conference final.

Regardless, Liberty must win on Sunday to make the March Madness field. And to do so, it’ll have to get past a Kennesaw State Owls team that beat the Flames in their only meeting this season.

In that game, which took place just three weeks ago, Liberty jumped out to a 5-point halftime lead before the Owls dominated the second half to win 88-81. Chris Youngblood led Kennesaw State with 22 points on 8-for-9 shooting and was one of five Owls in double figures on the day. 

Kennesaw State has been solid all year long, though its gaudy record has outperformed its metrics. The Owls are outscoring opponents by 6.6 points per game and have even stayed reasonably close against some notable opponents, such as when they lost 69-55 at Indiana back in December. Still, it’s notable that KenPom rates them as the fifth-luckiest team in the country, ranking the Owls at 130th in the nation overall.

What makes Liberty stand out from Kennesaw State when these teams — at least at a glance — profile fairly similarly?

One big answer is senior guard Darius McGhee, who is scoring 22.7 points per game for the Flames. McGhee may be undersized at just 5-foot-9, but is fourth in the nation in scoring and might end up on a summer league roster somewhere after graduation. In the first meeting between these teams, McGhee put up 43 points against Kennesaw State, and will be key in leading the Flames to victory today.

Having played very similar schedules this season, Liberty has simply been more impressive than Kennesaw State all year long. The Flames are outscoring opponents by 15.1 points per game, and have been particularly impressive on defense, holding the opposition to an average of just 60.2 points. 

The Owls have home-court advantage on Sunday, but it shouldn’t be enough to spring another upset against the Flames. Liberty deserves to be a road favorite, and they should avenge its previous loss by winning by far more than the spread suggests. I’m laying the points with the Flames today.

My best bet: Liberty -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Liberty vs Kennesaw State spread analysis

Liberty opened today’s game as a 4-point road favorite. The line has moved further in the Flames’ favor today, with Liberty -4.5 becoming the consensus line and some books even moving to -5 as of Sunday morning.

Both teams have outpaced expectations this year against the spread. Liberty is 18-12 ATS on the season, while Kennesaw State is 19-10-1 against the number on the year.

While the Owls have played well at home this year, that shouldn’t be enough for them to overcome the stark difference in talent on these two rosters. McGhee may not be a real pro prospect, but at the Division I level, he’s an absolute superstar and a difference-maker the likes of which Kennesaw State simply doesn’t have.

Liberty also has a solid supporting cast to go around its star player. The Flames boast four other players shooting at least 35% from 3-point range this year, making them one of the better teams from deep in the country this season.

That’s not only something to watch in today’s game, but something that will give the Flames upset potential against anyone they play in the postseason.

The Flames were in control for nearly 35 minutes against Kennesaw State in the first meeting, only coughing up the lead late. I’m backing Liberty to finish the job in the rematch and book its place in the NCAA Tournament today. Take the Flames and lay the points.

Liberty vs Kennesaw State Over/Under analysis

The total on the ASUN Championship opened at 136 points. Sites aren’t really in agreement on the number now, but 136.5 is the closest to a consensus Over/Under on the market at the moment.

That’s a surprisingly low number when you consider that these two teams combined for 169 points in regulation the first time they met up. However, that was a bit unusual, especially when you consider Liberty allowed 52 points in the second half to Kennesaw State.

That’s nearly as much as the Flames are allowing on average to their opponents over 40 minutes this season, so we can safely treat that as an outlier.

More recently, Kennesaw State has played to the Under in three of their last four games and only pipped the Over by one point in an 80-71 win over Lipscomb in the conference semifinals. On the other hand, Liberty has hit the Over in six of its last seven contests.

I wouldn’t expect the kind of shootout we saw in the first game to happen again, but I think both of these teams score too well and shoot the ball too consistently for a total this low. I’m happy to take the Over at any number below 140.

Liberty vs Kennesaw State betting trend to know

The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams. Find more college basketball betting trends for Liberty vs. Kennesaw State.