New Mexico State vs. Liberty Prediction, Picks & Odds

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29 November 2023

New Mexico State vs. Liberty Prediction, Picks & Odds

The New Mexico State Aggies battle the undefeated Liberty Flames in the Conference USA Championship on Friday, as we make our best New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction based on the college football odds.

When these two teams met all the way back in Week 2, the Liberty Flames defeated the New Mexico State Aggies, 33-17. In that game, the Flames outgained the Aggies, 526-341, won the turnover battle 3-1, and won the time of possession battle by nearly 16 minutes.

The Aggies have won eight consecutive games, but they’re 10.5-point underdogs against one of just five undefeated teams left in college football.

As part of our college football predictions for Week 14, here is our best New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction: Conference USA Championship

Liberty team total Over 34.5 (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Since these two teams met back on Sept. 9, both have dictated the pace of play against their subsequent opponents.

Liberty has done so with its offense, scoring 38-plus points in six straight games and eight of its last 10 since that Week 2 matchup. Meanwhile, New Mexico State is allowing just 19.7 points per game this season, the 20th-best mark in college football.

These different styles make this a tough game to pick. In the first meeting, the Aggies led 17-13 midway through in the second quarter before the Flames scored 20 unanswered to secure the victory. Was the closeness of that game a fluke, or was Liberty lucky to cover?

That ambiguity, in part, eliminates a play on the spread. However, we do like the Flames to score plenty in this game.

Liberty is playing for an undefeated season and conference title in its home stadium, a place where it's scored at least 33 points in six of seven games this season. New Mexico State's defensive numbers are also inflated thanks to playing a lot of struggling Conference USA offenses.

Liberty QB Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley are not average Conference USA players, and they’re going to expose the Aggies in ways other teams couldn’t.

While we expect the Flames to score plenty, the Aggies’ offense is an unknown. They’ve scored 28.2 points per game, and their 31-10 road win over the Auburn Tigers in Week 12 was incredibly impressive. However, the offense has been inconsistent this season, and there is a chance Liberty holds them below 20 points for the second time this year.

Therefore, the safest bet for this game is to simply back the best unit on the field, which is the Flames’ offense.

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New Mexico State vs. Liberty best odds

Only three of our best sportsbooks have this prop available at the time of writing. While we’d love to be able to get this a little lower, the prices for Over 32.5 or lower are very high. Therefore, we recommend playing Over 34.5 at DraftKings or Caesars now, then getting in at one of the sportsbooks without this prop listed if they come in at a lower total for -110 or better.

With the total for this game dropping at every major sportsbook, there is a good chance that you can get this number lower closer to kickoff. Therefore, if you’re not comfortable taking Over 34.5 at the price of +100, a wait-and-see approach could work.

New Mexico State vs. Liberty odds

Liberty opened as a 13.5-point favorite, but the spread has dropped to 10.5 or 11 across our best sports betting apps. While 56% of wagers are backing the Flames to cover the spread, oddsmakers don’t seem overly concerned with public action, so look for this number to stay between 10.5 and 12.5 without passing any key numbers.

As for the total, the number opened at 56.5, and it has already dropped to 56 or 55.5 at three of the five best sports betting sites. The first meeting between these two teams only went for 50 points, and 67% of bettors are backing the Under in the rematch. Those two factors all but ensure that this number will continue to drop throughout the week.