Liberty vs Sparks Predictions, Picks, and Odds

When the New York Liberty beat the Los Angeles Sparks on Sunday, Sparks forward Nneka Ogwumike was thoroughly outclassed by the Liberty's Jonquel Jones. Our WNBA betting picks are calling for a similar outcome in the rematch.

The 19-6 New York Liberty are off to the best start in franchise history, with eyes fixed firmly on capturing their first championship. But they continue to struggle to hold onto leads, and are not doing what a truly dominant team does: win against the spread. 

Their opponent on Tuesday, Aug. 1 — the Los Angeles Sparks — are in what one would kindly call a transition year. A convincing win over them by the Liberty would be an important stepping stone on the path to high-level playoff success.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Sparks believe the WNBA odds are far too low on Jonquel Jones’ recent dominance on the glass.

Liberty vs Sparks best odds

Liberty vs Sparks picks and predictions

The spacing revolution that has transformed the NBA over the last decade or so is still in its relative infancy in the W. 

For example, while it’s hard to make a living in the NBA as a power forward who can’t (or won’t) shoot at least a decent percentage on catch and shoot threes, an outright majority of teams in the W regularly play power forwards who are still exclusively paint-bound grinders on the interior. That makes the matchup advantages by the teams that do have shooting all over the court significantly more pronounced. 

The New York Liberty are well ahead of the curve in that department. Not only do they have a nominal power forward in Breanna Stewart who can stretch the floor with the best of them, they also have the even greater rarity in the WNBA in Jonquel Jones, a genuine stretch five. The shift to five out spacing has had cascading effects in the NBA that are only still bubbling to the surface in the W, and it impacts aspects of the game that at first blush seem far afield from shooting. 

For instance, rebounding.

That’s partly why longtime Los Angeles Sparks star forward Nneka Ogwumike is in a bind against the Liberty. She can’t play her game on either end the way she would like to because defensively, she’s stuck on the perimeter guarding Stewart. That alone limits her defensive rebounding opportunities substantially. 

Even when she’s crossmatched against Jones, she still can’t cheat toward the basket for fear of allowing her an uncontested three. In her primary and secondary matchups, she’s glued to the perimeter, which is not where she wants to be on either end of the floor.

This reality added up to Nneka getting just five boards on Sunday, and the Sparks were outrebounded by 46-25 in large part because of these structural disadvantages. The only time Nneka could play her game was when Kayla Thornton was in for Jones and Dearica Hamby could pick up Stewart, but this accounted for barely a handful of minutes across the course of the game.

Nneka isn’t the target of this bet, however, because the oddsmakers have adjusted her rebounding prop down accordingly. But her inability (and the inability of the Sparks more broadly) to have an impact on the glass does leave an obvious prop candidate in Jones.

Jonquel doesn’t face the same issues as Nneka. When Jonquel decides to get a seal and score inside, only her defender dares come to the basket with her because Stewie simply cannot be left to her own devices on the perimeter. In the rare instances when help does come, it will be from one of the Sparks guards who have little hope of preventing JJ from getting an offensive rebound. Jonquel had 13 rebounds when these teams played on Sunday.

Jonquel, meanwhile, can freely cheat into the lane when defending Hamby or Ogwumike because while both will occasionally take an open three, neither will burn New York from the perimeter enough to matter over the course of a full game.

Jones’ production on the glass overall continues to be undervalued by oddsmakers as well. She’s averaging 13 rebounds over her last five games, and has not had fewer than 11 in six straight. Bank on Jones to beat up the Sparks on the boards again on Tuesday.

My best bet: Jonquel Jones Over 9.5 rebounds (-113 at FanDuel)

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

Best WNBA bonuses

If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the WNBA, here are two of the best bonuses* available:

B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets!

best promo codes for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Liberty vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis

Though the Liberty and the Sparks are in different stratospheres in terms of team quality, they do share one unfortunate trait in common: these are two of the least reliable teams in the W in terms of covering the spread.

On the season, New York is just 10-15 ATS, while the Sparks are a bit worse at 9-14. Only the Phoenix Mercury has failed to cover more than either team. And lest one thinks that this was merely the product of a slow start that has balanced out over the course of the season, the trends for both the Sparks and Liberty have been even worse recently.

The Sparks are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games, as well as 4-10 ATS in the previous 14 against teams with a winning record. The Liberty are 2-8 ATS in their last 10, 1-4 ATS on the road, and a puzzling 1-6 ATS against teams with a losing record. That is ugly stuff across the board.

The Sparks ultimately covered when they played on Sunday, but it took an improbable run in the fourth quarter to narrow what had been over a 20-point lead for much of the game. It feels equally foolhardy to back Los Angeles when they’ve shown a proclivity for digging holes that deep as it does to back New York, for whom no lead is truly safe. Tuesday’s spread is hovering between -8.5 and -9.5 in favor of the Liberty, but at either number, this is a hard stay away bet for me.

Tuesday’s total opened and has held steady at 167.5, a slight drop from the 168.5 Sunday’s game closed at. With the total from their game on Sunday ultimately coming in at 166, this seems right on the money. With the Liberty defense looking shaky at times over the last several games, the Over has cashed in six of their last eight contests. 

If the Sparks are going to score enough to push this towards the Over, they’re going to need big games from their guards. That’s especially true for Jordin Canada, who is having a breakout year in terms of volume and efficiency from the perimeter.

In general, however, Los Angeles has struggled to score against the betters teams in the W in part due to the spacing limitations of their frontcourt. That contributed to the Under going 11-3 in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record.

Liberty vs Sparks betting trend to know

The Liberty are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sparks.

Liberty vs Sparks game info

Liberty vs Sparks key injuries

Liberty: Stephanie Dolson C (Out), Han Xu C (Out)
Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Questionable), Chiney Ogwumike F (Out), Nia Clouden G (Out), Katie Lou Samuelson F (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.