2023 WNBA Finals odds, line, Game 1 start time: Liberty vs. Aces picks, predictions, best bets by top experts
The 2023 WNBA Finals begin with a highly-anticipated matchup on Sunday afternoon. The Las Vegas Aces welcome the New York Liberty to Michelob Ultra Arena for Game 1. The Aces and Liberty were the clear top two teams during the regular season, with Las Vegas posting a 34-6 mark and the Liberty finishing 32-8. Las Vegas is 5-0 in the postseason, sweeping Chicago and Dallas, while New York is 5-1 in beating Washington and Connecticut to reach the championship round.
Tipoff is at 3 p.m. ET. The Aces are 4.5-point favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 171 in the latest Liberty vs. Aces odds. Before making any Liberty vs. Aces picks and WNBA predictions, be sure to see what SportsLine women's basketball experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai have to say.
Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com -- a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women's game. Wetzel, the site's lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks.
Now, Barzilai and Wetzel have turned their attention to the WNBA after going 996-685 on all college basketball picks over the last two seasons, putting them up 294 units since the start of the 2021-22 season. They also finished the 2022 WNBA regular season with a 54-44 mark in 2022. Anyone who has followed them has seen huge returns.
Now, Barzilai and Wetzel have set their sights on Liberty vs. Aces and just locked in their picks and WNBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see their picks. Now, here are several WNBA odds and betting lines for Liberty vs. Aces:
- Liberty vs. Aces spread: Aces -4.5
- Liberty vs. Aces over/under: 171 points
- Liberty vs. Aces money line: Aces -195, Liberty +162
- Liberty vs. Aces picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Liberty can cover
New York is led by 2023 WNBA MVP Breanna Stewart. Stewart finished in the top three of the league in scoring (23 points per game) and rebounding (9.3 per game) with 58.5% true shooting this season. Stewart is also a force on defense, averaging 1.6 blocks and 1.5 steals per game, and New York also has elite pieces in Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.
Ionescu is a two-time All-Star who averaged 17.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists per game this season, and led the WNBA with 128 3-pointers this season. Jones was the MVP of the Commissioner's Cup and generated a double-double in each of the first six playoff games for New York. Jones is averaging 16.5 points and 12.8 rebounds per game in the postseason, and the Liberty also led the WNBA as a team in 3-point accuracy (37.4%), 3-pointers per game (11.1) and assists per game (24.1) this season. See which team to pick here.
Why the Aces can cover
Las Vegas has absolutely dominated the 2023 season. The Aces produced the best record (34-6) in the league while also leading the WNBA in offensive efficiency (113.0 points per 100 possessions), defensive efficiency (97.7 points allowed per 100 possessions), and net rating (+15.3 points per 100 possessions). In the playoffs, Las Vegas is also unbeaten at 5-0, out-scoring opponents by 14.8 points per game and 18.6 points per 100 possessions. Opponents are shooting only 36.8% from the field and 23.6% from 3-point range against the Aces in the postseason, and Las Vegas is yielding fewer than 14 free throw attempts per game.
That builds on a regular season in which the Aces led the league in blocked shots (4.8 per game) and free throw prevention (15.7 attempts allowed per game), with top-three marks in field goal percentage allowed (42.6%) and 2-point percentage allowed (46.4%). On the other end, Las Vegas has star power to put consistent pressure on opponents, and the Aces led the league in field goal percentage (48.6%), 2-point percentage (54.9%), free throw percentage (84.0%) and turnover avoidance (11.1 per game) in 2023. See which team to pick here.
How to make Liberty vs. Aces picks
For Game 1 of the 2023 WNBA Finals, Barzilai and Wetzel are leaning Over on the point total, but also highlight a critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. They are only sharing what it is, and which side of the Liberty vs. Aces spread to back, at SportsLine.
