Liberty vs. Western Kentucky Prediction & Odds Week 9

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23 October 2023

Liberty vs. Western Kentucky Prediction & Odds Week 9

The Liberty Flames will need to take down the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in order to maintain their perfect season, and we have our best Liberty vs. Western Kentucky prediction based on the best college football odds for Tuesday's action.

The Liberty Flames enter Tuesday's game undefeated and atop the Conference USA standings, winners of seven straight games and five in conference play. While the Flames have been dominant for most of this season, they’ve won two of their last three games by seven or fewer points.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers suffered their first conference loss in a heartbreaking fashion in Week 8. The Hilltoppers led the Jacksonville State Gamecocks 17-10 late in the fourth quarter, but they allowed 10 points in the final 4:40 to fall 20-17.

Here is our best Liberty vs. Western Kentucky prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Liberty vs. Western Kentucky prediction: Week 9

Western Kentucky +4 (-108 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Flames are averaging 274.6 rushing yards per game, while the Hilltoppers allow 203.7. With this in mind, the Flames can run all over the Hilltoppers and leave this game with a convincing victory. However, last week, the Flames ran for 401 yards, and they still needed to erase a seven-point deficit late in the third quarter to escape with the win.

This is the biggest game of the season for the Hilltoppers. With a win, they position themselves to make a serious run at a Conference USA crown. Last week, they fell 20-17 at Jacksonville State, a team that Liberty beat 31-13. However, the Hilltoppers looked like the better team for 55 minutes of that game.

The Flames have let teams hang around in recent weeks. Even two weeks ago against the Gamecocks, the score was 17-13 in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley will rack up yardage like they have done in every game this season. The key for the Hilltoppers will be letting it happen and not getting frustrated.

Liberty relies heavily on turnovers to win its games, winning the turnover battle 18-9 this season. But quarterback Austin Reed and the Hilltoppers do a great job of protecting the football. They only have eight turnovers all season, four of which came against the Ohio State Buckeyes. If the Hilltoppers protect the football, they will win this game outright.

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Liberty vs. Western Kentucky best odds

For this game, it’s hard to find value in wagering at one sportsbook over another, as each of our best sports betting apps has the line listed at +4, but DraftKings offers the best price at -108.

With most bets backing the Flames, this number could continue to grow before kickoff. Therefore, you could consider waiting to see if you can get +4 at -105 or better. You wouldn't be risking much based on where the spreads and prices sit.

Liberty vs. Western Kentucky odds

The Flames opened as 1.5-point road favorites, which has swelled to 4 at our best sports betting sites. Currently, 75% of bettors back the Flames to cover the spread, so we could see this number growing even more. Key numbers are out of play, but it wouldn't hurt to wait a little longer to see if the spread moves in your favor if you’re on the Hilltoppers.

The total opened and remains at 60.5 at most sites with the best sportsbook promos. Only DraftKings is offering a different number, but the 60 they have listed isn’t different enough to offer any insight into where this line will move. A slight majority of bettors currently back the over, but it's the type of support that doesn’t suggest much movement.