Lightning vs Golden Knights Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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20 February 2023

Lightning vs Golden Knights Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

The Tampa Bay Lightning were held scoreless by the Coyotes when last seen despite registering 47 shots. But they're capable of getting back in the win column against a vulnerable Vegas Golden Knights squad, as our NHL selections spell out.

The Vegas Golden Knights are heating up, coming into this game with the Tampa Bay Lightning on a four-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Lightning exit one of their most frustrating losses of the season after being shut out by the Coyotes in their most recent game despite having 47 shots.

The Golden Knights have looked good lately, but their power play has been struggling mightily, and going up against a goalie as good as Andrei Vasilevskiy might expose their special teams issues. Tampa has been playing some strong hockey as well, winning three out of their last four games.

Find out my best bet in our free NHL picks and predictions for Golden Knights vs. Lightning on Saturday, February 18.

Lightning vs Golden Knights best odds

Lightning vs Golden Knights picks and predictions

The Golden Knights’ power play has had some horrible luck as of late, failing to convert in their last seven games on a total of 19 attempts and falling to 18th in the NHL in that department. Going up against one of the best goalies in the league in Andrei Vasilevskiy is not going to help this cause. Thanks in large part to the former Vezina Trophy winner, Tampa Bay ranks 11th in penalty kill rate this year.

The Lightning’s power play hasn’t been all that successful lately either, but the team has been scoring without it, tallying 15 goals in their last five games despite being shut out in their most recent contest.

Vegas hasn’t been that strong on home ice this season, skating to a 16-13-0 record at the Fortress. The Knights average fewer shots on goal (32.5 vs 32.7 overall) and fewer goals per game (2.9 vs 3.2) on home ice than they do overall.

They have also been playing their backup goaltender – Adin Hill – since Logan Thompson has been out with an injury. Thompson isn’t the only player the Knights are missing, as they will also be without their captain Mark Stone, who is out indefinitely.

The Lightning have a clear-cut edge in goal, and I am going to take my chances with Vasilevskiy in the blue paint.

My best bet: Lightning moneyline (-125 at BetMGM)

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Lightning vs Golden Knights moneyline analysis

The Lightning’s first two lines have looked really strong in their last five games, and they are 6-0 in their last six games against a team with a winning record.

Vasilevskiy has been feeling it as of late, winning six out of his last seven starts overall. He enters this game with a record of 26-13-1 with a .920 SV% and a 2.53 GAA. Hill’s numbers have actually been quite impressive, as he boasts a record of 13-5-1 with a .913 SV% along with a 2.47 GAA. But in my mind, Vasilevskiy is far and away the better netminder.

Whenever these two clubs get together, the road team seems to find success. The away team has gone 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams. Tampa Bay has an extra day of rest to their advantage as well, so I like their chances in this game.

Lightning vs Golden Knights Over/Under analysis

The Golden Knights and Lightning have some high-scoring offenses, but to me, Vasilevskiy is going to be the difference-maker, and I believe he is going to keep this game below the total.

Hill has earned some respect this season, and the Bolts are coming off a game in which they were shut out, so there could be some built-up frustration on their end.

I want to focus on the defensive side, since both teams are allowing less than three goals per game. Vegas is giving up 2.76 GPG, and Tampa is allowing 2.87 GPG. I think the goaltending will help this game stay below a lofty total tonight.