Golden Knights vs Lightning Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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09 March 2023

Golden Knights vs Lightning Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

Vegas is beginning to heat up as the end of the season approaches, and a big part of its success is due to the play of the first line. Our NHL betting picks will be drinking from that well tonight and riding on Ivan Barbashev to record a point in Tampa.

Despite snapping their five-game skid vs. the Flyers this week, this is still a Tampa Bay Lightning team struggling to beat good opponents, and tonight it hosts a very hot Vegas Golden Knights team as -170 home favorites.

These two teams met back in Vegas three weeks ago where the Knights closed as +110 home dogs in a 5-4 win. Even if Adin Hill doesn’t start for the visitors, is taking the home side at -170 warranted in their current form?

Find out my best bets for the Golden Knights vs. Lightning in my NHL picks and predictions.

Golden Knights vs Lightning best odds

Golden Knights vs Lightning picks and predictions

Since acquiring Ivan Barbashev, the top line of him, Jack Eichel, and Jonathan Marchessault have combined for seven goals and 15 points over the five games. Considering the team has managed just 11 goals over that stretch, the trio has contributed to 64% of the team’s tallies. What’s even more impressive is that they’ve all come at even strength.

Barbashev has points in three of his five games since the trade and is averaging 18:30 of ice time. That ranks second among Knights' forwards behind linemate Eichel who is riding a four-game point streak and has 15 points over his last 12 games.

This top line in Vegas has been leaned on heavily and faces a Tampa team that has struggled vs. playoff teams of late and has a 4.10 GAA over its last 10 games. Andrei Vasilevskiy owns a 3.38 GAA and a sub-.900 SV% in eight games over that stretch, and has seen a lot of hockey over the past couple of seasons.

Vasilevskiy has played 276 games since the 2019 season which is more than any goalie in hockey. He has 71 playoff games over that stretch alone. There are a lot of miles on the netminder and he comes into this game in his poorest form of the season.

The Bolts are still the best home offense in hockey so this game should see a neutral-to-negative game script for the visitors, which also favors the top line seeing more ice time.

Finally, as the last meeting showed, the Lighting do give up plenty of quality scoring chances at even strength and allow medium- and high-danger shots at a Top 12 rate.

In a game that’s seeing some movement to the Over and possibly featuring Johnathan Quick and a struggling Vasilvekiy, getting a 20-minute top-line player in Barbashev at +122 for a point is something I’m putting my own money on.

My best bet: Ivan Barbashev Over 0.5 points (+122)

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Golden Knights vs Lightning moneyline analysis

Tampa opened at -160 on the moneyline and has since moved 10 points to -170. This is the exact same price it was at home vs. Florida last week and, coincidentally, Florida was -170 at home vs. the Golden Knights on Tuesday. The books are pricing all three teams equally here, but even if Adin Hill is unavailable, there might be a slight discount on the Knights here in my opinion.

Vegas is 9-2-2 with the league’s third-best point percentage since February 1. Hill has been a huge part of that, but this is still a team that has a hot first line and is winning games despite the worst power play in hockey over the last 35 days.

The Knights beat the Bolts 5-4 back on February 18 as +110 home dogs in a game Vegas jumped out to a 4-2 lead after 20 minutes. The 40-point swing might seem short as home ice can be worth as much as 25 points, but considering each team’s current form, I can't lay 70 cents on the Bolts who are 3-4 SU at home since the beginning of February despite scoring over 4.00 goals per game.

The Lightning have struggled to get two points off good teams of late and their three wins over their last 11 games have come against poor opponents in Philadelphia, Detroit, and Anaheim.

Vasilevskiy has played more hockey than any goaltender over the last three-plus seasons and looks to be fighting the puck lately. Since February 1, the former Vezina winner has a 3.15 GAA across 12 games with a .909 SV%. Tampa Bay is giving up more shots than usual at 33.6 per game over its last 16 games (6-10 SU) which has correlated to a negative 0.44 goal differential per game.

The Lightning do have the advantage on the power play with one of the best units in all of hockey. However, the Knights are the most disciplined team and take the fewest penalties per game. Only five total power plays were awarded in the last meeting, hurting the strength of the home side tonight.

If Jonathan Quick is announced, bettors might want to wait to get the better price on the Knights. However, if Adin Hill starts (2.22 GAA and a .929 SV% since January 1) after missing practice yesterday, this moneyline might just move back to the opening price of TB -160.

Vegas is on the second game of a difficult five-game road trip, but has been in the state for at least three days and is playing exceptional 5-on-5 hockey. I’m a Knights' backer tonight at Amalie Arena.

Golden Knights vs Lightning Over/Under analysis

This total opened at 6.0 and hit 6.5 at some sharper books, with some places slower to adjust as of this morning.

The last meeting in Vegas had a closing total of 6.0 in the 5-4 Vegas win. Neither Vasilevskiy nor Hill played well as there were just a total of 50 combined shots on net. The game did, however, finish with 6.36 expected goals as both teams were able to create plenty of quality scoring opportunities.

That recent meeting coupled with Quick possibly getting the start is why we’re seeing some money on the Over. The recent poor performances for the Bolts have translated to plenty of Overs, going 7-2-1 to the Over in their last 10 and seeing an average of 7.50 total goals per game.

Vegas has been a profitable Under team of late, but a lot of that has been thanks to the play of Hill in net and an awful power play. Quick might need some offensive support after giving up three to the Habs on 28 shots in his Vegas debut.

With all the injuries to the Knights’ goaltending, I’d take a guess and say this is Quick’s start, especially with the upcoming road schedule. Sharper books are likely getting ahead of this and that’s why we’re seeing some 6.5s.

I’d play this Over 6 at -125 but likely not anything shorter. If Quick does get the nod, which I think is likely, this total should see some more action to the Over.