Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Stanley Cup playoff odds, trends: Bettors backing Toronto to advance for first time in 19 years

The longest Stanley Cup drought in the NHL belongs to the Toronto Maple Leafs. They not only haven't won it all since 1967 but haven't even been back to the Final since. In addition, Toronto has suffered heartbreak after heartbreak in recent first-round series -- it hasn't advanced in the playoffs since 2004. However, bettors at BetMGM clearly expect that to change this year against Tampa Bay as the Leafs at -160 are taking the most action to win their series in both tickets and money of any team in Round 1.

Toronto had first-round home-ice advantage last year against Tampa Bay as well, but blew a 3-2 lead midway through the third period of Game 6 in Tampa and lost in overtime. The Lightning then won Game 7 by a goal in Toronto en route to reaching a third straight Stanley Cup Final. The Bolts' threepeat chances were stopped by Colorado in six.

Forward Tanner Jeannot, who was acquired by Tampa Bay in a trade with Nashville on March 2, wasn't expected to play in this series because of a lower-body injury, but he returned to practice Monday. He's still not expected to suit up for Game 1, but now perhaps could surface at some point against Toronto.

The Lightning closed the regular season losing four of their final five, including a 4-3 loss to the Maple Leafs on April 11 when Toronto was resting several key players. The Leafs won the season series 2-1. Future Hall-of-Famer Andrei Vasilevskiy was 1-2-0 with a 3.06 GAA against the Maple Leafs, allowing nine goals on 92 shots (.911 save percentage).

No. 1 Toronto netminder Ilya Samsonov didn't play against Tampa Bay this season. Samsonov was 27-10-5 with a 2.33 goals-against average and .919 save percentage in 42 games overall and 19-3-3 with a 1.98 GAA and .927 SV at home. The Leafs need Samsonov to stay healthy because No. 2 Matt Murray is hurt again. Joseph Woll  played well (4-1-0) in the regular season but has no NHL postseason experience.

Since 2018, the Maple Leafs are 0-9 in games in which they have a chance to close out a series, including 0-4 in Game 7s. They also lost a series-deciding Game 5 to the Blue Jackets in the qualifying round of the 2020 playoffs.

The team did acquire two players with Cup-winning experience at the deadline from St. Louis in forward Ryan O'Reilly and defenseman Luke Schenn, who won the Cup with the Lightning in 2020 and 2021. The jobs of Leafs GM Kyle Dubas and head coach Sheldon Keefe likely are on the line in the series.

The second most-wagered first-round NHL series is Devils vs. Rangers, with New York at +100 taking the second-most tickets of any team and the third-most money. 

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