Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Picks, Predictions & Odds

It’s all on the line for the road underdog Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 5 on Thursday. They need to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs to extend the series and avoid their earliest postseason exit since the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has assessed the matchup and provides his Lightning vs. Maple Leafs pick based on the top NHL Odds across our best sportsbooks.

This is a must-win Game 5 for the Lightning, and they’re definitely unlucky to be in this position after blowing leads in consecutive overtime losses.

Tampa netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy hasn’t been the star we remember, and captain Steven Stamkos has been held to a single goal through the first four games of the series. 

Toronto, meanwhile, can end a 19-year drought by winning this series. 

The Maple Leafs have received timely scoring from their superstar core to win when they haven’t been the better team for long stretches the past two games. Now, they’re in a position to be the first team to advance to the second round of the playoffs.

Here are our best Lightning vs. Maple Leafs pick (odds via Caesars; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs pick

No goal first 10 minutes (+135 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

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There has been a goal in the first 10 minutes in each of the four games of this series, and both goalies have a postseason save percentage that’s well below their standard. 

Vasilevskiy’s .859 save percentage isn’t even in the neighborhood of his .915 mark during the regular season, and Toronto No. 1 goalie Ilya Samsonov hasn’t been any more reliable with a ratio drop from .919 to .876.

I’m expecting both teams to be extra cautious to start this elimination game because there have been so many early goals during the series, too. 

Additionally, there wasn’t a goal in the first 10 minutes of 40.7% of games during the regular season, so there’s also some overarching statistical correction in play for Game 5.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs best odds

Caesars (+135)

This is somewhat of a niche betting market, and it isn’t widely available across our best sports betting sites. From an odds perspective, you’ll just want to make sure to avoid the industry low +126 number listed through FanDuel.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds

The best moneyline odds for the underdog Lightning are +135 through PointsBet, and DraftKings has the best number (-150) for the Maple Leafs. The moneyline prices haven’t seen significant line movement across our best sportsbooks as of Thursday afternoon. 

DraftKings has the best number on the Over 6.5 (-110), while BetMGM and PointsBet both have the Under listed with the most favorable odds (-105).

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs game info

• Date: Thusday, April 27, 7 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, Sportsnet, CBC
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, On

Lightning-Maple Leafs pick made 4/27/2023 at 12:45 p.m. ET.

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