Lions vs. Bears betting preview: NFL Week 14 odds, picks, best bets
Bookmakers are playing a game of limbo with the Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears game on Sunday, with a game total that opened at 46.5, then moved down to 41, then to 40.
It wasn’t because the Bears have improved greatly on defense as the season has moved along, which they have. Instead, the over/under was bet down because weather forecasts early in the week were predicting winds as high as 30 mph at Soldier Field on Sunday.
- Spread: Lions -3 (-122), Bears +3 (+100)
- Total: o43.5 (-105), u43.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Lions -174, Bears +146
What’s the joke about weather forecasters in Southern California? It’s the easiest job in the world to predict 72 degrees and sunny every day. Not so much in Chicago, where forecasts can change dramatically from one day to the next.
That’s exactly what happened on Wednesday when wind projections for the Windy City on Sunday were halved to 17 mph. It’s still not insignificant, especially for a quarterback like Jared Goff, who has had issues playing outdoors in “weather” games throughout his career. But it’s certainly an improvement.
The total has adjusted accordingly, moving up to 44 on Wednesday and seemingly settling in at 43.5 in the days since.
Not that this was going to be a high-scoring game to begin with, but a damp field (rains are expected overnight Saturday), chilly temperatures, and the winds should keep the scoring down even further.
Throw in the fact that the Bears have made significant improvements on defense, going from the NFL’s worst unit in 2022 to a respectable current ranking of 11th (and third-best over the last three games), and you can see why this game’s total was bet down as much as it was.
Chicago ranks first in rush success rate allowed. That’s not good news for the Lions, who with center Frank Ragnow questionable to play, might have to ask Goff to win this game.
Goff has played poorly in inclement weather over his entire career, including in college at Cal. His worst game this season came outdoors in Baltimore in less-than-ideal weather conditions. The Ravens trounced the Lions, 38-6, with the quarterback completing a season-low 62% of his passes with an interception and no touchdowns.
In the team’s last meeting, inside Ford Field, Goff had three interceptions and only a miraculous comeback in the final two minutes saved the Lions from an embarrassing defeat.
But the fact of the matter is, the Bears were the better team in that game. They had five drives of more than 5 minutes, and with Detroit’s recent struggles against mobile quarterbacks, long sustained drives utilizing Justin Fields, rookie Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert will likely be a big part of the offensive game plan again.
We like three bets here, not necessarily in a parlay but certainly as separate plays.
