Liverpool vs Manchester United Odds & Picks

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15 December 2023

Liverpool vs Manchester United Odds & Picks

The Reds have dominated Man U in recent competition at Anfield, and we expect a similar result when these two sides meet up in Sunday's Northwest Derby. Read more in our Liverpool vs. Manchester United betting picks.

Anfield is expected to set new attendance records on Sunday when Liverpool plays host to Manchester United, and our Premier League odds indicated it could be a house of horrors for the visitors.

Jurgen Klopp’s side has seen the money pour in, making Liverpool overwhelming favorites to take all three points as they continue their push for the Premier League title. Liverpool have been perfect at Anfield this season, with 11 wins in 11 matches across all competitions, and they’ve not lost to Man United at home since 2016.

In fact, Man United’s last goal at Anfield came three managers ago — and if things get ugly like they did last season, then Erik ten Hag could become the third manager in the last five years to essentially lose his job due to this fixture. Making matters worse is the suspension of Bruno Fernandes, leaving his side void of their lone creative force.

Our latest picks and predictions for Liverpool vs. Manchester United on Sunday, December 17 explain why things could get very ugly for the visitors with their captain on the sideline.

Liverpool vs Manchester United best odds

EPL predictions for Liverpool vs Manchester United

Manchester United’s last Premier League goal at Anfield came under Jose Mourinho — who was let go after a 3-1 defeat in December 2018. If you knew that Jesse Lingard was the last Man United player to score at Anfield, then I’m impressed.

But if you knew that, then you also know this has been a bad spot for Man United over the past few years. Visiting Anfield has been the thing nightmares are made of, and the betting market took notice quickly.

Those looking to bet on Liverpool to win won’t find much value in this match. The line opened at -175, and quickly skyrocketed in juice. In fact, the best price you can find anywhere right now is -320.

Want to bet on the first half instead? Get ready to lay some money there, too. -133 is what you’ll pay at TonyBet. Then again, that’s a value play compared to the price of -182 to back them to win the second 45 minutes.

Thankfully you’ve got us to help you find an even better play. Instead of picking one of those, why not play both? We’re backing Liverpool to win both halves, with TonyBet providing a strong +165 price for the Reds to run rampant either side of halftime.

As a Manchester United fan, I’m sadly anticipating just that. At full strength, this would be a match the Red Devils would struggle to win.

Man United are really struggling to score this season. According to Opta, they’re converting just 7.4% of their shots which is by far the lowest mark in the league. They’re also woefully underperforming, having scored just 18 goals despite an xG of nearly 26 goals.

This is despite the numbers posted by Fernandes this season. Man United’s captain leads the league with 105 open-play sequences that resulted in a shot, and his 47 chances created are also the most in the Premier League. Fernandes' three goals and three assists also give him an involvement in one-third of their tallies this campaign.

But the forwards aren't finding the net. In fact, the team's top scorer is a holding midfielder, with Scott McTominay currently sitting on five goals. And because of that, ten Hag has made desperate changes to his team the past two months, pushing McTominay forward in attack and asking Bruno to play a deeper holding role.

This has led to two major problems. First, there’s little cohesion in attack for the Red Devils, with teams opting to sit deep and force them to figure out a way to break through. That’s fed into their second issue, an imbalance in midfield. When Man United lose the ball — which they do, leading the league in intercepted passes against — they’re exposed in the midfield.

No team has allowed more progressive carries than the Red Devils, and doing so on Sunday against Liverpool could be catastrophic. With the pace and skill Mohamed Salah and Darwin Nunez possess, allowing them the space on the counter could trigger a repeat of last season’s demolition job.

This fixture cost Mourinho his job, and then essentially cost Ole Gunnar Solskjaer his a few years later. After taking over last season following the departure of Ralph Rangnick, things got even worse as Man United suffered a 7-0 humiliation under ten Hag. And a poor result here could do the same for the Dutch manager.

Liverpool scored a goal before halftime and then punched Man United in the mouth right after the break. The Red Devils capitulated, as Liverpool did what they wanted and experienced little fight from the visitors.

With Bruno suspended and former captain Harry Maguire injured, the odds are high of a sequel. Liverpool have outscored Man United at Anfield in the last six halves played at Anfield, and I’ll bank on them adding two more to that tally on Sunday.

My best bet: Liverpool to win both halves (+165 at TonyBet)

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Liverpool vs Manchester United same-game parlay

Liverpool to win both halves

Dominik Szoboszlai to score or assist

Half with most goals: 2nd half

At a price of +700, we have a tasty same-game parlay over at bet365. First, we’re going to back Liverpool’s Dominik Szobszlai to score or assist on Sunday. The juice on players like Salah is substantial, so we’re going with a player who is being a bit overlooked.

Szobzlai had just one goal and no assists in his last five, but his 46 live-action passes leading to a shot are 11th-most in the league. Add in his set-piece delivery, and he’s seventh in shot-creating actions. Include Szobzlai's 45 progressive carries — all but two of which have gone into the final third — and he’s going to be in the midst of Liverpool’s attack.

We’re also banking on more goals being scored after halftime than before. I anticipate the raucous Kop spurring their boys on, and with Man United’s absentee list, things could get quite rough after the break.

Liverpool vs Manchester United side and Over/Under analysis

Liverpool’s current price on the 3-way money line reflects their perfect record at Anfield, in addition to Man United’s struggles. Those bold enough to bet on the Red Devils will find a price of up to +750, which for me is still not enough to back it. The draw is paying as high as +510.

Bruno and Maguire aren’t the only players ten Hag will be missing. Marcus Rashford could miss out, with news Saturday morning indicating he’s ill. Raphael Varane is back but he’ll be partnered by the elderly Jonny Evans, with no real cover available aside from a banged-up Victor Lindelov.

Liverpool is well rested after playing a nearly unrecognizable lineup in Europa League, and they’ll feed off the energy in the building. Don’t overthink this one — go with our best bet and avoid the juice.

The total also reflects the fact that this game could get out of hand. The typical total of 2.5 is long gone, with this match having a 3.5 line that is fairly split on both sides. In fact, the Over is actually preferred in a few places.

Liverpool have scored multiple goals in all 13 home fixtures this season, and have put three or more on the board in nine of those. Meanwhile, Man United has already conceded three or more goals away to Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Copenhagen, and Galatasaray.

While the Over is a play, the smarter move is to isolate Liverpool's team total.

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