Manchester United vs Chelsea Odds & Picks

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05 December 2023

Manchester United vs Chelsea Odds & Picks

With Conor Gallagher watching from the sidelines following his latest red card, our betting picks for Manchester United vs. Chelsea turn to his supporting cast to find the best value at Old Trafford on Wednesday.

Manchester United will look to reverse a very worrying trend on Wednesday when they host Chelsea in midweek Premier League action. Our soccer betting odds indicate the Red Devils are the underdogs despite being at home at Old Trafford.

The Red Devils have faced three Big Six clubs so far this Premier League season. If you add in their last match against Newcastle, Man United has lost all four of those fixtures. More worrisome, they’ve scored just once against those sides, while conceding nine. With pressure piling on manager Erik ten Hag, this is a prime opportunity to get a big victory.

For Chelsea, injuries have put a serious damper on their season. They’ve struggled to produce consistent results, having won consecutive league outings just once. They have a chance to do so here, and with a very favorable stretch of matches ahead it could be the start of a surge up the table.

Our Manchester United vs. Chelsea picks and predictions for Wednesday, December 6 explain why one player’s suspension means value for you in the Premier League betting market.

Manchester United vs Chelsea best odds

EPL predictions for Manchester United vs Chelsea

Conor Gallagher is fourth among all Premier League midfielders this season in ball recoveries and third in tackles. His 39 tackles on the season are a far distance behind Joao Palhinha of Fulham, but he’s been a key component of Chelsea’s midfield as he’s nearly doubled everyone else on the team.

But Gallagher was shown a red card at the weekend in Chelsea’s 3-2 win over Brighton and will miss the match with Man United. That’s why we’re going to back Enzo Fernandez to pick up the slack and register at least three tackles on Wednesday.

Fernandez ranks third on the team with 21 this season and is going against a Man United midfield that has shown an inability to maintain possession through the center of the park. He also ranks 50th among all Premier League midfielders in recoveries.

If you look at Man United’s matches against top opposition this season, you’ll notice a trend. Newcastle’s trio of midfielders each recorded three or more tackles on Saturday. Rodri did the same thing for Manchester City when they squared off a month ago.

When Man United went against Tottenham earlier this season, Yves Bissouma registered five tackles, completing four of them. And as for the aforementioned Palhinha, he also had five when they lost to Man United last month.

A big part of the issue for the Red Devils is the inability to build any consistent attacks in the midfield. Bruno Fernandes is more apt to play a hero ball than to make a simple pass, and he’s lost the ball 15 times while trying to take on a defender — the 21st-most of any midfielder in the league.

Making matters worse, the man they expected to be a source of goals this season has instead been a turnover machine. Only 18 players have been dispossessed more than Marcus Rashford this season. Meanwhile, Scott McTominay is unreliable in keeping possession behind Bruno.

Even with Gallagher alongside him this season, Enzo has registered three tackles in four of his last 10 starts, and he had two against Brighton as he was forced to pick up some of the slack.

Against a reeling Man United team unable to break through against Newcastle at the weekend, I’ll take Enzo to get to three tackles once again. At +124 odds, it’s a number that’s simply offering too much value to pass up.

My best bet: Enzo Fernandez Over 2.5 tackles (+124 at TonyBet)

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Manchester United vs Chelsea same-game parlay

Enzo Fernandez Over 2.5 tackles

Chelsea double chance

Raheem Sterling Over 1.5 shots

Chelsea should get a result from this match. We’ll discuss more in-depth shortly, but Man United are not in a good way right now and Chelsea have the weapons to expose their biggest weaknesses.

One of those weapons is Raheem Sterling. He failed to register a shot against Brighton, but he had multiple shots in each of his previous four outings. He’ll likely be lined up against Diogo Dalot and Luke Shaw, both of whom will not be in their natural positions, and his pace is going to cause problems.

Manchester United vs Chelsea side and Over/Under analysis

Between injuries and head-scratching lineup choices by ten Hag, it’s no wonder the public is backing Chelsea to get a win away from home.

The Blues are priced between +140 and +155 on the 3-way moneyline, with Man United getting odds between +175 and +190. The draw is the distant third choice, as high as +275.

And the draw could present some value. I think Chelsea win this match if they finish their chances — but that’s been the big issue for the Blues this year. They’ve been converting at a higher rate over the past month, but they’re still almost three goals below expected despite having the fourth-most expected goals this season.

Meanwhile, Manchester United sit bottom-half in xG, and they’ve scored as many goals this season as Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest. They’ve already lost at home three times this season, with all four of their wins coming by a single goal against lower sides.

If the Red Devils set up to limit damage and Chelsea don’t convert, the draw is a real possibility. And in this rivalry, the spoils tend to be shared — five of the last six meetings have ended in a draw.

It would also make the Under a clear pick for the total. The Under is paying out as much as +138, as the majority of lines have pushed up to 2.75 due to the money coming on the Over. The 2.5 line will require juice of around -175 to play the Over.

But last year’s 4-1 win for Man United was the anomaly in this rivalry. It ended a stretch of six consecutive matches with two or fewer goals. The Under has hit in three of Man United’s last four league matches, while each of Chelsea’s last four matches has seen at least five goals scored.

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Manchester United vs Chelsea game info

Manchester United vs Chelsea key injuries

Manchester United: Lisandro Martinez D (Out), Mason Mount M (Out), Casemiro M (Out).
Chelsea: Christopher Nkunku F (Doubtful), Conor Gallagher M (Out), Ben Chilwell D (Out).