Louisville vs NC State Prediction, Picks & Odds
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NC State Has Been Awful Against the Spread
The Wolfpack are one of just six FBS teams that has lost each of its first four game against the spread. Not even a push in the mix, despite having just the 64th-toughest NCAAF strength of schedule this season.
NC State beat UConn (24-14) as 14.5-point road favorites, lost to Notre Dame (45-24) as 7-point home underdogs, beat VMI (45-7) as 43-point home favorites and, most-recently, beat Virginia (24-21) as 7.5-point road favorites.
After a very encouraging sophomore season, former UVA quarterback Brennan Armstrong took a step back as a junior and hasn’t really showed signs of recovering early in his senior year, his first with NC State. Armstrong is just 81 of 135 for 859 yards – a 60% completion percentage – with five TDs and four INTs. He’s averaging just 215 passing yards per game through the first four weeks.
As a sophomore with the Cavaliers, he averaged over 400 passing yards per game with 31 TDs and seven INTs on a 65.3 completion percentage.
Of course, head coach Dave Doeren’s run-first attack isn’t conducive to big passing numbers. Brennan’s mobility has been crucial to at least keeping NC State above .500. He leads the team with 225 rushing yards on a stunning 52 carries through four games.
On the season, the NC State offense has rushed the ball 157 times compared to just 137 pass attempts.
Louisville Running Rampant Over Opponents
The Cardinals have an even heavier run/pass split through their first four games: 158 rush attempts versus 109 pass attempts. Jawhar Jordan, the bell-cow of the backfield, has already racked up 478 yards and six TDs on just 50 carries, a preposterous 9.6 yards per carry. Take that YPC number with a grain of salt, though: he averaged 19.3 YPC in Louisville’s 56-0 rout of FCS Murray State.
The junior is already more than halfway to exceeding his rushing total from last season (815), when he also led Louisville in rushing yards.
Former Purdue and Cal quarterback Jack Plummer has looked at home in Jeff Brohm’s offense. Facing the difficult task of replacing Malik Cunningham, Plummer has thrown for 1,120 on 67% passing (65 of 97) with ten TDs but a mildly concerning four picks.
While Louisville’s record doesn’t show any official road victories, they do have two de facto road wins already. Their Week 1 win over Georgia Tech came in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Atlanta, while their Week 3 win over Indiana was at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
The Cardinals are 2-2 ATS so far. They actually failed to cover in both “road” wins, beating Georgia Tech 39-34 as 7-point favorites, and Indiana 21-14 as 10-point chalk. Their ATS victories came against Murray State (56-0 as 43.5-point favorites) and last week against Boston College (56-28 as 14-point favorites).
Despite the strong start, Louisville’s national championship odds have stayed stagnant. They were +25000 longshots before Week 1 and remain there heading into Week 5. Jack Plummer’s name has popped up in the Heisman odds as a +22500 longshot, as well.
Louisville vs NC State Prediction
This is a case of two teams trending in opposite directions. NC State may have a 3-1 record, but it’s highly discouraging. Even in their last-second win over rebuilding Virginia, the Wolfpack were outgained 384 to 319. Realistically, they came out on top due to UVA penalties and turnovers, not a sustainable recipe for winning games.
While both teams are near the bottom of the nation in terms of returning production, it’s clear that Louisville’s transfer additions are working out better, and the team has already navigated difficult road environments.
Look for the ascending Cardinals to continue their upward trajectory and send the Wolfpack to an ugly 0-5 ATS record.
Louisville vs NC State Pick: Louisville Cardinals -3.5 (-110)
