Luton Town vs Man United Odds & Picks

Covers

16 February 2024

In a season that's been filled with ups and downs, the emergence of Rasmus Hojlund has to make Man United fans pretty happy. The young Dane has scored in five straight fixtures and our EPL betting picks expect him to make it six on the trot against a weak Luton defense.

Luton Town will hope to pick up valuable points in their fight to stay out of the Premier League relegation zone on Sunday when they welcome Manchester United to Kenilworth Road Stadium. Our Premier League betting odds have the Red Devils as clear favorites to win.

In their first season in the Premier League, Luton Town have won over neutral fans with their fearless play of late and their quirky stadium. But last weekend the Hatters saw their six-match unbeaten run end in a 3-1 defeat to lowly Sheffield United, and now they sit just one point above the drop zone.

Manchester United’s won three straight in the league and are unbeaten in their last four. Rasmus Hojlund became the club’s youngest player to score in five consecutive Premier League fixtures in their 2-1 win at Aston Villa last weekend, and have closed the gap to the Top 4 to just six points.

Our Luton Town vs Manchester United soccer picks and predictions for Sunday, February 18 breaks down the match and explains why the betting market is still providing more value than it should on a familiar player prop.

Luton Town vs Man United best odds

EPL predictions for Luton Town vs Man United

Over the season, Rasmus Hojlund is 10th among all Premier League forwards with 0.42 goals per shot on target. But over the past three league match days, that number has gone up to 0.75 as he’s converted on three of his four efforts on goal. That’s the fifth-best mark of all forwards with multiple shots on target over that timeframe.

More importantly, Hojlund’s three goals have come from just six shots in total. His 0.50 goals per shot over those three match days, regardless of position, is the third-best mark in the league among players who have taken at least three shots. And his three goals in that span are second only to Luton’s Elijah Adebayo.

This is all to say that Hojlund’s rise in form since Christmas isn’t down to getting more attempts than before. Rather, it came from an improvement in service from wingers Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho.

It also coincided with the benching of Antony—a player who all season had completed just six passes to Hojlund, none of which came inside the penalty area.

According to Opta, Hojlund sits third in xG per shot among all Premier League forwards with 25 or more shots on goal and at least 900 minutes played. But he’s also ranked in the 70s in shots taken per match. His increased service has helped, as has his improvement in positioning after working with such legendary strikers as Robin van Persie over the past month.

His improvement has come as no surprise to those at the club, particularly his teammates. And as he continues to score, they’ve spoken publicly about how it’s just the tip of the iceberg for him.

This week, Man United defender Harry Maguire raved about him to Sky Sports:

“We’ve seen the talent he has and now it’s really clicking for him in front of goal,” Maguire said. “I’m sure he’ll keep scoring goals and there are many more to come.”

Now Hojlund will look to continue his streak against Luton Town while helping United win their fifth straight away match. And it’s a good thing he doesn’t need many chances, as they might be limited this weekend.

In their last three Premier League fixtures, Luton Town have allowed just 11 shots on goal. But eight of those came two weeks against Newcastle, a match in which they conceded four goals. And while Sheffield United came to Kenilworth Road last weekend and put just three shots on goal, they scored on all of them.

Luton have been playing on the front foot over the past month, and that’s going to leave space on the counter-attack. And with the pace of Man United’s forwards, it leads to a higher probability for Hojlun and company to get out on the break.

That’s one of the reasons we backed Hojlund to score in our preview against Aston Villa last weekend, and he did so inside of 20 minutes. The goal came from a terrific corner routine, in which his positioning allowed him an easy tap-in when Maguire headed down to him in the six-yard area.

And it’s why we’re going to back him to score again. Hojlund is in fine form, and his teammates are emphasizing finding him more often as his confidence and comfortability grow. As long as he’s getting a price over +150, I’ll continue to hammer him to score.

And thankfully, TonyBet’s done just that for us. Hojlund to score anytime at +160 is an excellent value and we’ll jump on it and back the Dane to once again put his name on the scoresheet.

My best bet: Rasmus Hojlund to score (+160 at TonyBet)

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Luton Town vs Man United same-game parlay

Rasmus Hojlund to scoreAlejandro Garnacho to score or assist

Both teams to score — Yes

Whereas many newly promoted clubs tend to lock down their area and try to get hard-fought results, Luton Town are not afraid to take the match to their opponents. It’s a key reason for their match average of 3.39 goals, the seventh-highest mark in the league, and has led to them scoring in 11 straight league matches. That also explains why three-fourths of their fixtures have seen goals from both teams.

That average has risen to 4.00 goals per match over their last eight matches, third-most among any club. In that same timeframe, Man United’s match total has been 3.38, a stark difference from their 2.75 goal mark for the season. This match should be quite open, so we’ll look for both teams to find the back of the net.

Luton have repeatedly been hurt down their left wing this season, and Newcastle took full advantage of that last week. Their first goal came from a Keiran Trippier cross after a long ball down that flank, and the third came from a ball crossed into the right area near the back post that Luton’s defenders failed to deal with.

Garnacho will be starting on that wing, and he’s been heavily involved in Man United’s attack over the past two months. Since Boxing Day, the Argentine’s 12 key passes rank sixth in the Premier League among all players and he ranks 13th among all players with 15 shots attempted. I like him to score or assist in what should be an open affair.

Luton Town vs Man United side and Over/Under analysis

The 3-way money line has Man United priced at -125, as it jumped last weekend from the opening number of -105. Their win over Villa combined with Luton’s defeat to Sheffield United saw the home side jump from around +270 to as high as +320, while the draw went from +260 to +320.

The Red Devils have won four straight matches in all competitions, are unbeaten in their six matches in 2024, and have won four consecutive fixtures on the road. Their improvement in attack has helped cover up their defensive issues, as have the return of key players.

Luton blew a 4-2 lead to Newcastle and were punished by Sheffield’s lethal finishing. Now they’re facing a Man United side that has won their last 11 matches against newly-promoted sides. The Red Devils are good value to get the win here.

The total for this match is sitting at 3.0 goals in a few places, and I think that’s about the right spot. The Over is slightly on the plus side, but considering the Over 2.5 is priced as high as -200 in some places it’s the best you’ll get here.

Luton have been tough at home, but their matches with Arsenal, Man City, and Chelsea all featured at least three goals. Man United have scored multiple goals in six consecutive fixtures, and their last five have seen three or more goals scored. I’d lean Over in this one on the Asian market, with three goals exactly pushing and 4+ getting you a win.

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Luton Town vs Man United game info

Luton Town vs Man United key injuries

Luton Town: Marvelous Nakamba M (Out), Tom Lockyer D (Out), Mads Anderson D (Out).
Man United: Lisandro Martinez D (Out), Luke Shaw D (Questionable), Tyrell Malacia D (Out).