Luton Town vs Arsenal Odds & Picks

Covers

01 December 2023

Despite being nowhere near each other in the EPL table, Arsenal have been far from perfect of late and Luton Town have managed goals in five of their last six. In front of their home fans, they'll find a way to contribute to the scoring.

Tuesday’s Luton vs. Arsenal matchup is a David vs. Goliath matchup in the Premier League.

Newly-promoted Luton sit just outside of the relegation zone but have a huge task ahead as they welcome Arsenal, who currently sit atop the Premier League table.

Will this be a routine win for Arsenal or can Luton steal what could be crucial points? Don’t miss our Luton vs. Arsenal free betting picks to find out.

Luton Town vs Arsenal best odds

EPL predictions for Luton Town vs Arsenal

Arsenal come into this top of the Premier League table and knowing that each win keeps their gap ahead of Man City in place and gets them closer to their first Premier League title in a generation.

On the flip side, Luton are narrowly above the relegation spots, by just two points, and know that every point is valuable at this stage.

The home side come into this on the back of a 3-1 defeat to Brentford. It was a disappointing loss, especially given they had a chance to win two games back-to-back. In truth, they were never really in it with Brentford racing off to a two-goal lead and dominating both possession and shots.

Arsenal managed a win on Saturday, their third in a row in the Premier League. Despite taking a lead in the sixth minute, things got nervy when Wolves scored in the 86th minute to pull the score back to 2-1.

The Gunners managed to hold on and get the three points to keep their lead at the top of the Premier League but it’s potentially worrying that they conceded here. In fact, that Wolves goal is part of the reason for our best bet here, which is for Luton to find the back of the net.

First off, we have to tackle the elephant in the room that Luton have scored just 13 goals in 14 games, an average of just under 1.0 per game. The club has managed to score in five of their past six, which isn’t bad considering they’ve faced Aston Villa, Manchester United, and Liverpool over that stretch.

In fact, they’ve only been held scoreless four times in the Premier League and two of those fell in their first month in the league.

We also need to consider that Arsenal, despite having some great players in the backline, and the best defensive record in the Premier League, are still more than capable of conceding goals.

They’ve given up goals to the likes of Wolves, Newcastle, and Burnley in the past month. With the fierce atmosphere at Kenilworth Road pushing their team forward, we should see Luton bag a goal.

It won’t be enough to win the game but it will give their fans — and us bettors — something to cheer.

My best bet: Luton Town team total Over 0.5 (-105 at TonyBet)

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Luton Town vs Arsenal same-game parlay

Luton Town team total Over 0.5

Arsenal to win

Luton Town Over 1.5 cards

Despite backing Luton to score, we're rolling with Arsenal to win. There’s a reason that they are top of the Premier League and Luton are near the bottom.

There's simply too big of a difference in quality between these teams for a shock, with this being arguably the worst group of promoted teams in Premier League history. Arsenal are 24 points ahead of Luton’s nine and will add another three to that difference here.

Finally, we’re backing Luton to get 2+ cards. It’s a game under the floodlights at home, against a team of far superior quality. They’ll need to be fighting for every ball and that increases the chances of fouls and ultimately bookings.

They’ve had 28 cards in 14 games, an average of exactly two per game and it should happen here.

Luton Town vs Arsenal side and Over/Under analysis

It’s hard to find real value on the moneyline here. Arsenal are almost certain to win this but I simply would never recommend betting on any Premier League team to win at odds approaching -500. Luton to get the home win is +1,100 and the draw is +545 but neither appeals to me.

Over 2.5 goals is another that should land but at odds of -213, I won’t be betting it. It’s come in across 61.5% of both Luton and Arsenal games this season and really should again here given the quality on the Arsenal team and the lack of it in Luton’s lineup.

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Luton Town vs Arsenal game info

Luton Town vs Arsenal key injuries

Luton Town: Tom Lockyer CB (Out), Teden Mengi CB (Out), Alfie Doughty WB (Out), Dan Potts DEF (Out), Mads Andersen CB (Out), Reece Burke DEF (Out), Cauley Woodrow FWR (Out), Marvelous Nakamba CM (Out), Albert Sambi Lokonga CM (Out).
Arsenal: Jurrien Timber CB (Out), Thomas Partey CM (Out), Emile Smith-Rowe CM (Out), Fabio Vieira CAM (Out), Takehiro Tomiyasu FB (Questionable).