Magda Linette vs Aryna Sabalenka Picks & Odds

The logical final in this topsy-turvy Australian Open is No. 5 seed Aryna Sabalenka (+100) against No. 22, Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina (+150). But not much about this tournament has gone according to form.

 Linette vs Sabalenka Odds

Odds as of Jan. 25 at DraftKings Sportsbook

If there was going to be a longshot this week, it looked to be former No. 1 Karolina Pliskova – currently the No. 30 seed, but whose hard, flat strokes are most rewarded in the combination of court, weather and tennis balls at this Australian Open.

And she had a sweet draw against Magda Linette in the quarterfinals.

But she didn’t show up to the dance, while the consistent Linette posted the biggest win of her career in the quarterfinals Wednesday.

Vekic Can’t Pull a Linette

Donna Vekic, who is 26 and, unlike Linette, has been in the top 20 and has been to the second week of all the majors, had a similar opportunity versus Sabalenka.

She serves big enough to trouble anyone. But Sabalenka has continued her zen run through this Australian Open, and it’s arguably the easiest time she’s had in her four trips to the final four.

Sabalenka dismissed Vekic 6-3, 6-2 – even though the match took an hour and 49 minutes, lengthy for that type of scoreline.

Statistics for the Belarussian had been fairly consistent until Wednesday: nice winner/unforced errors ratio for such an aggressive player. Not too many aces, but few double faults.

The match versus Vekic was quite different: more winners, more errors, a lot more aces (nine) – but also a lot more double-faults (nine).

Helping Sabalenka out was the fact that Vekic topped her with 13 double faults, and was just 2-for-14 on break points while Sabalenka went 5-for-13.

Late-Blooming Linette Coming to the Fore

At 30, Linette has been playing Grand Slam tournaments since her debut at the French Open in 2015 (She has missed only two).

She had reached the third round at all four majors. But she had never gone beyond that anywhere – until this Australian Open.

Sabalenka’s path, which began with WImbledon in 2017, wasn’t particularly distinguished until she made the semifinals at both Wimbledon and the US Open in 2021.

Despite her struggles with the serve in 2022, she made the semifinals at the US Open for the second consecutive year.

So this territory is not new. But never has she had a sweeter path to her first potential Grand Slam title.

Magda Linette vs Aryna Sabalenka Head-to-Head

Linette has upset the No. 16 seed Anett Kontaveit, No. 19 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova, No. 4 Caroline Garcia and now No. 30 Pliskova.

And she has looked well inside her comfort zone while doing it.

If you look at the pre-tournament Australian Open odds, so many names at the top never got close to this final weekend.

Sabalenka Leads Head-to-Head 2-0

Sabalenka has never lost to Linette, which will give her great confidence; she’s never even lost more than three games in a set to her.

Linette vs Sabalenka Match History

Will Sabalenka flinch with this golden opportunity in the Linette vs Sabalenka picks?

The winner will face the winner of a match between Elena Rybakina and Victoria Azarenka in the Australian Open final.

Not Serena. Not Barty. And not Swiatek.

Pliskova vs Linette Prediction

In most cases (except perhaps recently Emma Raducanu at the 2021 US Open), the underdog ends up having their day.

It feels like that for Linette, because Sabalenka is in a much better place than in her previous major semifinals. She’s playing like a champion – or at least a finalist.

Pliskova vs Linette Best Bet: Sabalenka and -4.5 Games (-130)

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