Magic vs. Timberwolves: A Spread, Total to Bet in Minnesota
Action Network contributor Andrew O'Connor-Watts breaks down his Magic vs Timberwolves betting picks for Friday.
Magic vs. Timberwolves Odds
Here’s everything you need to know about Magic vs. Timberwolves on Friday, Feb. 2 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Orlando Magic square up against the Minnesota Timberwolves Friday night in what should be a slow, grind-it-out battle featuring two of the league’s best defenses.
The Wolves beat the Magic on their home court just a few weeks ago in a 113-92 blowout. Minnesota was at full strength, while Orlando was without Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Joe Ingles and Jonathan Isaac. We’ll see if the scrappy Magic can get revenge on the Wolves on the road.
Let’s get to our Magic vs Timberwolves prediction and pick.
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Magic vs. Timberwolves Prediction
Pick: Lean Magic, bet at +8.5
Magic Betting Outlook
After a rough December and January riddled with injury, the Magic are finally healthy. From Dec. 26 to Jan. 19, Wagner, Ingles and Isaac played a combined 14 games as Orlando went just 5-9. However, they still over-performed the market, going 8-6 against the spread (ATS) with two wins over the Knicks and a win over the Nuggets to name the more impressive ones. Included in that stretch is the previously mentioned loss to Minnesota.
Now Orlando has all three back in action, but the results haven’t fully materialized. In their last six games (since Wagner returned from injury), the Magic are just 3-3 straight up (SU) and 4-2 ATS, including a loss to the Memphis Grizzlies—who might as well call themselves the Memphis Hustle for how many G-Leaguers they’re playing right now.
Despite imperfect results, the offense has improved since Wagner’s return, going from a 112.2 Offensive Rating before this six-game stretch to 114.6 since.
Timberwolves Betting Outlook
The Wolves have had an impressive season to date and currently boast the best record in the Western Conference after a win over the Thunder on Monday. One of the keys to the Timberwolves’ success and a big difference from last season is the integration and veteran presence of Mike Conley. The Wolves have made their name—in a similar fashion to the Magic—as a defense-first team. In fact, they have the best Adjusted Defensive Rating in the league, per Dunks and Threes. But what makes Conley’s skillset so valuable, is his ability to run the offense on a team where that end of the floor things can run cold and go stagnant.
The Wolves’ Offensive Rating with Conley on the floor goes from 118.1 to just 113.4 with him off the floor and with him only playing two games in the last five, we could see a bit more scoring from the Wolves on Friday night.
Magic vs. Timberwolves Picks, Odds
I think the Magic are the value side in a revenge spot, considering they lost their last head-to-head meeting just a few short weeks ago and have a fully healthy squad. This Magic team isn’t one to take losses lightly and they like to hold grudges. Since Jamahl Mosley took over as head coach, the Magic are 65-47 ATS versus opponents to whom they lost the last head-to-head meeting. That record is an even more improved 10-6 this season.
I also think this total is too low based on the Magic’s slip in defense and their improved offensive play with Wagner back in the mix. Similarly, the Wolves’ offense is improved with Conley in the lineup. Their defense is still as good as it has been, but the Magic have the highest Rim Rate (38.3%) and rank fourth in Free Throw Rate (23.0), which will put pressure on Rudy Gobert. If he gets into foul trouble early, that will get the Magic offense going.
Meanwhile, the Wolves are seventh in Rim Rate (34.8%) and sixth in Free Throw Rate (22.0), while Orlando is just 21 in FT Rate on defense.
I don’t recommend playing both the side and the total, but I think the Magic side and the total lower closer to tipoff so I’ll wait to bet this game and try for a better number. If we get Magic +8.5, that’s a must-play.
Pick: Lean Magic, bet at +8.5 or total at 210 or better
