Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat Prediction, Preview, and Odds
Once Upon A Time In Las Vegas - Championship Sunday
Orlando will try to pick up its first three-game winning streak since Dec. 18 when it travels to Miami on Friday night. The Magic have won three of their last four games, including a pair of wins against Boston and Indiana. Miami has won six of its last eight contests, beating New Orleans and Boston in back-to-back games earlier this week.
Magic on two-game winning streak
Orlando looked like its only goal this season would be to avoid finishing at the bottom of the Eastern Conference when it lost 20 of its first 25 games. The Magic shocked the league by winning eight of their next nine contests in a stretch that included two wins at Boston along with wins over Toronto (twice), Atlanta and the Los Angeles Clippers. They have struggled with consistency since then, but they won back-to-back games for the first time since Dec. 23 when they beat Boston and Indiana at home earlier this week. Orlando had all five starters score in double digits against the Pacers in a 126-120 final, paced by rookie Paolo Banchero’s 23 points.
— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) January 26, 2023
Gary Harris Jr. was on fire from the perimeter against Indiana, converting on all six of his 3-point tries en route to a season-high 22 points. Wendell Carter Jr. contributed with a double-double on 18 points and 10 rebounds, marking his second straight double-double and his sixth in 2023. The Magic have won five of the six games when he has done so, making that trend something to keep an eye on in this matchup. This will be a tough matchup for an Orlando offense that is No. 27 in points per game (111.3), as Miami ranks second in points allowed per game (108.2). The Heat are averaging 8.5 steals per game and have held teams to a 36.9% clip from 3-point range.
Herro trying to snap out of slump
Miami got off to a sluggish start this season as well, going 12-15 through it first 27 games. The Heat have been able to turn their season around since then, having avoided consecutive losses since Dec. 23. They have gone 11-5 in their last 16 games and are coming off back-to-back wins over New Orleans and Boston to climb to sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings. This will be the final game of a three-game homestand for the Heat. They have held their opponents to 98 or fewer points in each of their last four wins, including their 98-95 win against Boston on Tuesday.
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) January 26, 2023
Star guard Jimmy Butler missed Tuesday’s game due to a back issue, which was his first time out of the lineup since Dec. 31. Butler, who is tied for the team lead with 21.6 points per game, is going to return on Friday night. Center Bam Adebayo is also averaging 21.6 points to go along with a team-best 10.2 rebounds. He picked up the slack against Boston, pouring in 30 points and pulling down 15 rebounds. Adebayo has reached the 30-point mark four times since Dec. 31, and he has eight double-doubles since Jan. 2. Third-leading scorer Tyler Herro continues to be in somewhat of a slump, shooting 6 of 34 from 3-point range since Jan. 16.
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I am a fan of the way both teams are playing right now, but there is almost always going to be valued on the type of team like Orlando in this matchup. Miami has become a household name in the Eastern Conference over the past few seasons, while Orlando is flying under the radar further down the standings. The Magic have covered the spread in six of their last seven games, and they have also covered in six of the last eight games between these teams. Butler was a late scratch due to back tightness on Tuesday, and Herro continues to struggle from the perimeter, which are two factors that make me feel even better about backing Orlando as a road underdog.
Prediction: Orlando +7
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This should be an old-school slugfest on Friday night, as both teams love to play strong defense and slow the game down. Miami is sitting at No. 28 in the NBA in tempo and is dead-last in the league in scoring, but its defense ranks second in points allowed. Orlando is also in the bottom half of the NBA in tempo and is No. 27 offensively. Herro’s recent struggles from the perimeter makes Miami an even more one-dimensional team, and Butler’s back tightness is certainly a concern for the Heat’s offensive capabilities as well. Both teams are in good form and are trying to continue surging in January, which means there should be a high level of defensive intensity in this matchup.
