Magomedkerimov vs. Egli Betting Analysis and Prediction

The PFL is back with their third installment of the 2023 regular season on the MMA fight schedule. Welterweights will be showcased in Las Vegas this week, and a key matchup will be when the PFL veteran Magomed Magomedkerimov takes on debutant Ben Egli on Friday night.

Read further down for a full betting analysis and Magomedkerimov vs Egli prediction.

Magomed Magomedkerimov vs Ben Egli

Location of the game: The Theater and Virgin Hotels, Las Vegas, NV.

Date and Time: April 14, 2023. 7:30 PM ET.

How to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+

Magomedkerimov beat Gleison Tibau in his last appearance, getting the job done via unanimous decision.

Egli is coming off a submission victory over Tsogookhuu Amarsanaa in January of 2022 at a promotion called Fierce FC.

The 33-year-old Dagestani martial artist is one of the most successful fighters on the PFL roster. He is 12-1 inside the promotion and unbeaten in the regular season. Magomedkerimov was also the 2018 PFL welterweight world champion.

Magomedkerimov is said to have the best guillotine in the world; the method to a chunk of his nine career submission victories. To add to his submission threat, Magomedkerimov also has 11 TKO/KO victories. The former champion has had six out of his last ten bouts end inside the distance. 

Egli is making his PFL debut this week against arguably the toughest matchup in the division for a newcomer. With no major promotion experience, all the info you can find on this guy is that he teaches BJJ at a gym in Oregon. 

At age 35, Egli has quite a bit of experience. He has ten documented amateur fights, and now this will be his 19th professional bout. With no fights in a big promotion, it is tough to trust how high of a competition Egli has seen.

No injuries have been reported to the UFC or NSAC.

MMA odds have Magomedkerimov as a massive -1100 betting favorite heading into this week’s event. These are very rare odds, and some might even say there shouldn’t be odds like this in the sport of MMA.

Before we even get into the Magomedkerimov vs Egli prediction and break down this fight, if you can get Egli at more than +600 odds, it might be worth the underdog bet. There are so many things that can happen in the cage that would make that bet hit–an injury, a clean punch with four-ounce gloves, or anything else you can think of.

We have a very one-sided matchup between these two welterweights. Magomedkerimov is coming into this one with a lot of confidence, and being a former world champion, Egli is probably worried about when his next MMA fight will be. You can’t be a part-time fighter at this level.

In terms of styles for both of these fighters, there wasn’t much footage on Egli to study. In one of his fights for FFC, Egli showed a solid chin and high-level Jiu-Jitsu skills. He fought against a bigger man with similar amounts of experience. Egli was able to land a big right hand and then take his back to finish the rear-naked choke.

After breaking down the little information we had on Egli, there was nothing that would justify a pick against Magomedkerimov this week. The Egli moneyline is there for a longshot pick, but it would be a waste of money.

This kind of matchmaking is what makes making MMA predictions for a promotion like PFL so difficult. These are tough to watch and, even worse, hard to bet on. 

The Magomedkerimov vs Egli prediction is that the former champion will get his hand raised. He will most likely finish this fight as well, so get Magomedkerimov to win inside the distance at +100. That is much more valuable than the moneyline.

The strength and wrestling, along with the power in the striking department for Magomedkerimov, will be too much for a fighter like Egli.

A guy like him seems to be just crafty enough for the regional shows, but a former world champion is inevitably going to expose the holes in his game.

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