Making Money Betting Big Favorite Nysos in the San Felipe Stakes
Only five horses have entered Sunday’s $400,000, Grade 2 DK Horse San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park. The 1 1/16-mile contest is one of four Road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve qualifiers taking place this weekend, and on paper it’s both the simplest and the hardest to handicap.
How can that be? It has to do with the potential betting payoffs. Any way you slice it, #3 Nysosis an obvious and overwhelming favorite to win the San Felipe. There’s a chance he’ll start as a 1-20 favorite – the lowest odds that can be offered in U.S. pari-mutuel wagering – and it’s hard to think of a reasonable scenario where Nysos falls to defeat. Picking Nysos to win is the easy part; the hard part is profiting from that decision.
Why is Nysos such a heavy favorite? Well, let’s count the reasons. He’s undefeated and unchallenged in three starts, winning them all by a minimum of 7 ½ lengths while earning terrific Brisnet Speed ratings of 102, 102, and 100. He dominated the seven-furlong, Grade 3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar by 8 ¾ lengths over future Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby winner Stronghold, and in the one-mile, Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita last month he romped by 7 ½ lengths over stablemate and Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes runner-up #2 Wine Me Up. Throw in the fact Nysos is trained by Bob Baffert (who has won the San Felipe a record eight times), and Nysos appears poised to trounce Saturday’s field with ease.
It helps that Nysos has already beaten three of his four San Felipe rivals. Wine Me Up is back for a rematch, as are #1 Scatifyand #4 Mc Vay, who finished third and fourth in the Robert B. Lewis. They’re all capable colts, but turning the tables on Nysos is an imposing task, which leaves us with a difficult question: who is most likely to finish second behind the favorite?
Splitting Wine Me Up and Scatify isn’t easy. They were separated by only three-quarters of a length in the Robert B. Lewis, with Mc Vay another 4 ½ lengths behind. Wine Me Up gained runner-up honors that day, but he benefited from experience – the Lewis marked his fourth straight start in a Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier. Scatify, on the other hand, was stepping up sharply in class and distance off a debut victory sprinting three-quarters of a mile at Los Alamitos. He set the pace in the Robert B. Lewis before weakening in the drive and may have more upside for improvement than Wine Me Up.
But wait, what about #5 Imagination, the lone San Felipe entrant who isn’t exiting the Lewis? The third and final Baffert trainee is a new face in promising form, and he has a shot to steal second place on Sunday.
Check out the quality of competition Imagination has faced. In his debut sprinting at Del Mar, he finished second behind Pilot Commander, who returned take runner-up honors in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes. For his second start, Imagination stretched out over one mile at Del Mar and finished second by a neck against subsequent Robert B. Lewis participant Better Than Gold, while future El Camino Real Derby runner-up Tapalo settled for third place.
Imagination broke his maiden third-time out, leading all the way to win a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita over a field including next-out winner Cornell. And in his fourth start, Imagination finished second in a fast $100,000 allowance optional claimer racing one mile at Santa Anita, beaten only a neck by his undefeated stablemate Maymun while pulling 10 ½ lengths clear of the third-place finisher.
These form lines suggest Imagination has the talent to take second prize in the San Felipe from Wine Me Up and Scatify, so we’ll play the race accordingly. If you’re betting on a small budget and want to minimize risk, a cold exacta keying Nysos over Imagination is a viable strategy. However, if you’re willing to invest a bit more in search of a bigger return, a trifecta adding Wine Me Up and Scatify for third place is the strategy we recommend.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 exacta: 3 with 5
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 6th race, $10 exacta 3 with 5
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$15 trifecta: 3 with 5 with 1,2 with 1,2 ($30)
What to say at the betting window: Santa Anita, 6th race, $15 trifecta 3 with 5 with 1,2 with 1,2
