Man City: Best players, predicted XI + more

The reigning champions, Manchester City, are the focus of our latest 2023/24 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) team preview.

In these team-by-team guides, we look at pre-season results, summer transfers, upcoming fixtures and set-piece takers.

We also hear from a fan of each club, take a stab at a predicted XI and pick out each team’s best FPL players.

City’s 2022/23 title-winning campaign is dissected in greater detail in this article.[anon_only id="snack_dex6"][/anon_only]

Data in these pieces comes from our Premium Members Area, which you can access with a discounted pre-season subscription.

A treble isn’t a bad place to start.

City swept all before them in 2022/23 (apart from Southampton in the EFL Cup!), winning 12 successive springtime league matches to overhaul Arsenal and then sealing that elusive UEFA Champions League title in June.

Ranked first in the division for expected goals (xG) and expected goals conceded (xGC), they were once again the underlying numbers kings.

It also suggests we can expect more from their defence next season. A total of 13 clean sheets was freakishly low and at odds with their other defensive stats; Manchester United recorded 17 shut-outs despite a far inferior xGC (51.18 to City’s 33.07).

Jokes about Ederson (£5.5m) go here but the Brazilian had been between the posts for 20 shut-outs in the previous campaign.

There aren’t too many chinks in City’s armour but from a Fantasy perspective, rotation and tactical innovation.

With the UEFA Champions League not starting until after Gameweek 5, Pep Guardiola’s tinkering should be kept to a relative minimum initially. He didn’t rotate much at the start of 2022/23, with seven players starting all of the first four league matches.

But after the September international break, the guessing games begin.

They are educated guessing games, for sure, with the likes of Luke making a very good fist of anticipating Guardiola’s selections.

But even the most carefully mapped-out predictions are at the mercy of the brooding Cruyff disciple. It’s not just the personnel switching but the occasional tactical tweaks, too: who would have thought Joao Cancelo (£6.0m) would have become surplus to requirements midway through last season, with Pep opting for four centre-halves across his backline (including an ‘inverting’ one)?

Mateo Kovacic (£5.0m) has been signed to partly replace the Barcelona-bound Ilkay Gundogan, although their skill sets as ‘number eights’ are somewhat different.

Josko Gvardiol (£5.0m) has arrived, too, the Croatian being someone who can not only play the Nathan Ake (£5.0m) left-back/left-sided centre-half hybrid role but also a defender capable of inverting a la John Stones (£5.5m).

Aymeric Laporte (£5.0m) and Cancelo could be next out the exit door as a result of Gvardiol’s capture.

Riyad Mahrez has left to join the great retirement village in the Middle East, with City thought to be in the market for reinforcements on the right flank.

It’s been a fairly low-key summer for City, with only three friendlies taking place before Sunday’s Community Shield.

Kevin De Bruyne (£10.5m) got his first minutes of pre-season at Wembley as a second-half substitute, while Ake was the only absentee of note. The Dutchman had picked up a minor issue in the game against Bayern Munich in late July.

Julian Alvarez (£6.5m) has benefitted from De Bruyne’s absence with a joint-high 270 minutes of game-time.

We’ve seen a lot of Phil Foden (£7.5m) in a central role; perhaps he’ll be charged with replacing the goals of Gundogan, rather than the ball-carrying, transition-tastic Kovacic.

Guardiola opted for a slightly different set-up against Atletico Madrid in Seoul, with Foden drifting infield from the right flank and Kyle Walker (£5.0m) doing his best Cancelo impression up and down the wing.

Like last season, the reigning champions are the only Premier League team who avoid a big-six side in the first six Gameweeks.

It’s actually an even longer run of these ‘easier’ matches this season, with a trip to Wolverhampton Wanderers to come in Gameweek 7.

There are four fixtures against teams who came up from the Championship this season or the previous year: Burnley, Sheffield United, Fulham and Nottingham Forest. Steve Cooper’s side had the worst away record in the division in 2022/23, so there’ll be hauls aplenty expected from that fixture.

The visit of Newcastle United in Gameweek 2 is the one big test in the first seven Gameweeks, although City still managed to score five goals against last season’s joint-best Premier League defence.

Erling Haaland (£14.0m) took and scored seven Premier League penalties last season. Despite Pep Guardiola saying in February that Haaland was first in line from 12 yards, the Norwegian still had to contend with Mahrez and Gundogan – both now departed, of course – trying to muscle in on spot-kick duties in the spring.

De Bruyne might be another asset to benefit from the exits of those two former team-mates, who were tussling with the Belgian for a role at set plays in 2022/23:

Man City players sorted by corners taken (above) and direct free-kicks (below) in 2022/23

Guardiola’s history of throwing big-money centre-halves straight into the deep end means that we could see Gvardiol as soon as Gameweek 1, although we await word on the stopper’s fitness in Thursday’s press conference.

A debut might be hastened if Ake is still struggling with the injury that has rendered him unavailable in the last fortnight.

Whether De Bruyne is ready for a start yet is up for debate; he’s ahead of schedule but has still only had one substitute appearance this summer.

Guardiola’s pre-Wembley words on Foden suggest he doesn’t fully trust the England international in an ‘eight’ role from an off-the-ball perspective, although there will be much less defensive work to do against Burnley than there was against Arsenal.

A price rise to £14.0m hasn’t deterred interest in Haaland, who sits in over 86% of Gameweek 1 squads.

A country mile ahead of every other FPL asset for both big chances (59) and expected goals (28.66) last season, his tally of 36 goals was a Premier League record.

There’ll be a time to come when we have to weigh up his value, particularly if one-premium set-ups become the norm and the likes of Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) and Harry Kane (£12.5m) are about to encounter a run of better fixtures where they enter the captaincy conversation.

But with two newly promoted sides in the first three Gameweeks, woeful travellers Nottingham Forest to follow in Gameweek 6, no big-six opposition till Gameweek 8 and no Champions League distractions until September, this doesn’t feel like a wise time to back against him.

In 2022/23, Haaland plundered 15 goals and three assists against City’s other Gameweek 1-8 opponents outside of Burnley and Sheff Utd.

In the words of David Brent: “At least start on him, and then move on…”.

Aside from Haaland, there are no real picks you’d group in the near-essential bracket.

Stones and Ruben Dias (£5.5m) lead the charge from defence, though.

Stones’ attacking threat is probably being overstated a bit despite him playing in midfield but there’s no denying that he’s taking up more advanced positions now. Stones was key to the inverted full-back set-up in 2022/23, while Dias once again became the centre-half mainstay – as he was in the previous campaigns – once he had recovered from his post-Qatar hamstring issue.

Foden is in the no man’s land between top pick and watchlist candidate, an asset who could have an FPL campaign to remember after the departure of positional rivals Mahrez and Gundogan. Or, with Lucas Paqueta (£6.0m) linked, be deemed too much of a risk for the outlay, especially with such competition for the midfield slots in our Fantasy squads.

Foden had the best rate of goals, shots in the box and efforts on target among City’s senior midfielders last season. A central, advanced role would surely only boost his goal threat – he just needs to persuade his manager he should stay there.

Above: FPL assets sorted by minutes per xGI in 2022/23

De Bruyne is also worth monitoring when he is up to full speed. A price slash to £10.5m means that he’s now available at his cheapest since 2019/20.

Trailing only Salah for xGI among midfielders last season, he’s still much likelier to assist than score – as he’s done in eight of his last nine Premier League campaigns. That in itself will be enough to deter some FPL investors, with Messrs Rashford and Saka offering more of a goal threat at a cheaper price.

We’ve enlisted the help of big City fan and serial Pep predictor 4lex_mcfc for our fan Q&A.

Our thanks go to Alex for his time and his insight in the answers below.

“Three names: Mateo Kovacic, Rico Lewis, and Phil Foden.

“Kovacic has been incredible in a deeper left midfield role or deputising for Rodri and I think the ball retention he offers there could unleash Jack Grealish in some ways.

“Lewis has been the best player on the pitch in most instances, whether it’s from the inverted role or as the advanced eight in place of Kevin De Bruyne. He will certainly have a big part to play this season.

“Foden has been played in the ‘Gundogan’ role and in a creative right-sided free role. It’s unclear where exactly he’ll play this season – likely all around – but he has looked amazing in central areas.” – 4lex_mcfc

“Erling Haaland, duh. If you want to go against him, you go against him with captaincy, not ownership.

“John Stones. Easily the first choice, doesn’t often sub on when benched, and a proper attacking threat. Beats all of City’s defenders, in my opinion.

“Phil Foden is a risky pick who may not justify his selection due to the abundance of midfield options but the circumstances are perfect for him to take a big step in terms of output this season.” – 4lex_mcfc

“Haaland and Stones are pretty much locked into my team and I am flirting with the idea of Foden, though I likely won’t go there to start with.” – 4lex_mcfc

“First. As long as Pep is at the club, we could have 11 plumbers on the pitch and I’d back us to finish top.” – 4lex_mcfc