Manchester City vs. Burnley prediction, odds, time: English Premier League picks, bets for August 11, 2023
A tricky test could be in store for league champion Manchester City on Friday when they travel to Turf Moor to open the 2023-24 English Premier League season against Burnley. The Clarets ran away with the Championship last season to earn promotion, and they dominated foes on their home turf. Still, Manchester City have won five of the past six English Premier League titles and maintain their championship core, spearheaded by all-world striker Erling Haaland. City went 28-5-5 last season to finish five points ahead of Arsenal in the Premier League table. Burnley were 29-14-3 to finish 10 points clear of Sheffield United in the Championship to secure promotion. They closed the season by beating rival Blackburn Rovers 1-0 in the playoff final.
Kickoff in Burnley, England is set for 3 p.m. ET. The latest Burnley vs. Manchester City odds list Manchester City as -340 favorites (risk $340 to win $100). Burnley are +950 underdogs, a draw is priced at +420, and the over/under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before locking in any Manchester City vs. Burnley picks, make sure you check out the EPL predictions and betting advice from proven SportsLine soccer insider Martin Green.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since last year's World Cup, Green has been profitable in multiple areas on his soccer picks, including the Champions League (+4.78 units), the FA Cup (+3.07) and the EFL Cup (+3.64), Euro 2024 qualifiers (+3.01) and Europa League (+1.60).
Now, Green has broken down the Burnley vs. Man City matchup from every angle and locked in his Premier League picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Man City vs. Burnley:
- Man City vs. Burnley spread: City -1.5 (-120)
- Man City vs. Burnley over/under: 2.5 goals
- Man City vs. Burnley money line: Burnley +950, City -345, Draw +420
- BUR: The Clarets scored at least once in 42 of their 46 matches last season
- MCY: The Citizens have won 11 straight meetings by a combined score of 40-1
- Man City vs. Burnley picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back Manchester City
The Citizens will be motivated as they come in off a bitter loss to Arsenal in Sunday's battle for the FA Community Shield. The Gunners equalized 11 minutes into second-half stoppage time and won on penalties. It was an even match, but Burnley aren't anywhere near Arsenal's class. City are 16-6-1 in the last 23 EPL meetings between the teams, outscoring the Clarets 26-1 over the past eight. All that was before the Citizens had record-setting striker Erling Haaland. The 22-year-old had an EPL-record 36 goals last season and 52 in all competitions in his first season in Manchester.
With the exceptions of Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez, the usual suspects remain with City. That means Kevin De Bruyne will continue as the catalyst for the attack after leading the EPL with 16 assists last season. Rodri (two goals, six assists) also is a critical creative piece in midfield, and Mateo Kovacic comes over from Chelsea to join them. Phil Foden (11 goals, six assists) and Jack Grealish (five, seven) also contribute to an attack that scored 94 goals in 38 matches in 2022-23. See which team to pick here.
Why you should back Burnley
The Clarets had a record-setting season in the Championship and are no strangers to the Premier League. A founding member of the English FA, Burnley spent six years in the top flight before the 2021-22 relegation. They clinched promotion with seven games left, a Championship record, and had a 10-game win streak to tie another league mark. Burnley went 16-6-1 at Turf Moor last season, with a plus-34 goal differential. Five of their seven victories during the 18th-place 2021-22 EPL campaign came in Lancashire, one of those including 1-0 against Spurs.
Burnley scored 87 goals while conceding 35 in 46 league matches last season. They allowed 15 in 23 home matches. Clarets top scorer Nathan Tella (17 goals) is back with Southampton, but Benson Manuel (11) and several other young newcomers can be electrifying. Midfielders Josh Brownhill (seven goals, eight assists) and the ever-present Josh Cullen have excelled under manager Vincent Kompany. New goalkeeper James Trafford is a blossoming star brought over from Man City, and Kompany is a City legend who will have his men believing in an upset. See which team to pick here.
How to make Burnley vs. Manchester City picks
Green has scrutinized the Burnley vs. Manchester City match from every angle, and he is leaning Under on the goal total. He also has two best bets, including a plus-money play on a goal-scorer, and has a full breakdown of the match. He's only sharing his Premier League picks and analysis at SportsLine.
