Manchester United vs. Bayern Munich: Champions League odds, pick

Manchester United is in a win-and-pray-for-help spot against Bayern Munich on Tuesday in the Champions League. 

Sitting in last place in Group A, the Red Devils need two things to happen Tuesday to avoid an embarrassingly early exit in the competition: United needs to beat Bayern Munich at Old Trafford and to have Galatasaray and FC Copenhagen play to a draw in their match in Denmark.

The odds of that happening are quite slim.

A parlay of Manchester United (+165) and the draw (+290) in the match between Galatasaray and Copenhagen would carry odds of +933, which equates to roughly a 9.7 percent chance when converted to implied win probability. 

The good news for United is that Bayern Munich has absolutely nothing to play for in this match. The Bavarians locked up first place in Group A already and should welcome the opportunity to rest some players as the holiday season is the busiest part of the soccer calendar.

In all likelihood, Manchester United will face Bayern’s B-team.

The bad news for United is that Bayern Munich’s B-team will still be quite talented.

Bayern is one of the best clubs in the world and has a wealth of options at every position, so it’s not as if we’ll see a bunch of also-rans show up to Old Trafford on Tuesday. And what’s worse is that United has already shown it can lose to any team on any given night. 

The Red Devils are coming off a 3-0 defeat at home against 15th-place Bournemouth on Saturday and have also been defeated by Galatasaray, FC Copenhagen and Crystal Palace this season. Is Bayern Munich’s reserve team worse than any of those clubs? Probably not.

So while a lot of punters are simply going to back Manchester United on the moneyline because Bayern Munich has absolutely nothing play for and it’s a must-win for the Red Devils, it’s important to remember that bookmakers were not born yesterday. The stakes for this match have been baked into the price and if you’re betting on United here, you have to be OK with the fact that you’re paying a premium.

Additionally, Manchester United has done nothing to this point in the season to earn blind trust, no matter the spot.

So instead of backing either team on the moneyline here, I’d go hunting for big prices on a chaotic match.

Manchester United’s biggest weakness is a very leaky defense (it just conceded three goals to Bournemouth) and it’ll have its hands full with Bayern, even if Thomas Tuchel dresses his reserves. 

Conversely, United has no choice but to outscore Bayern in this match.

As poor as the Red Devils have been in front of their own goal, they still possess plenty of attacking threat with Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, Alejandro Garnacho and Rasmus Hojlund. 

Any goal from Bayern Munich in this match will demand a response from United, so this match should play out at a frenetic pace as the Red Devils try desperately to keep their hopes of qualifying for the Round of 16 alive. 

There are a number of different ways to find value on a match that could quickly devolve into chaos, but my favorite is backing the game to go over the alternate total of 5.5 goals at +600.

Best Bet: Over 5.5 goals (+600, FanDuel)