Maple Leafs betting trends: Auston Matthews finally heating up
The Toronto Maple Leafs are firmly in the final quarter of the regular season with 18 games remaining.
The team just finished a five-game road trip, scoring three wins — including an impressive victory over the New Jersey Devils in their most recent outing. Toronto did lose a key player in the process, though, as Ryan O’Reilly is on LTIR with a broken finger.
To see how the squad will move forward without O’Reilly and more, check out the latest Maple Leafs betting trends.
Maple Leafs betting trends
Lineup changes with O'Reilly out
Player prop bettors had to adjust pretty significantly in Toronto’s most recent game.
The Maple Leafs were without O’Reilly and John Tavares (illness), leaving them without two-thirds of their second line. With Tavares likely coming back soon, it’s O’Reilly’s absence that’ll vault someone into an offensively-friendly role on the second line for the foreseeable future.
The player we’re assuming will get the first crack at the opportunity is Calle Jarnkrok. He was skating in O’Reilly’s spot for Toronto’s most recent game and scored a goal.
Jarnkrok’s 13:25 in ice time wasn’t noticeably different than his season average (13:48), but playing with William Nylander proved to be a massive upgrade. The talented winger made a sweet pass to set up the fellow Swede.
If it is Jarnkrok who remains on line No. 2, he’ll be an excellent choice to score a point.
Another player to monitor is Michael Bunting. The tenacious forward started the previous game on the fourth line but worked his way up to the third. He notched the game-tying goal and then made a nice play on Matthews’ game-winning tally.
With head coach Sheldon Keefe showing a willingness to mix up the lines, prop bettors will have to monitor the second line closely. Obviously, playing alongside Tavares and Nylander is a great place to be for offence.
Home sweet home
After spending the last five games on the road, Toronto’s at Scotiabank Arena for the next four contests.
A popular hockey betting strategy is wagering against teams in their first home game after a lengthy road trip. The thought process is there are non-hockey-related things to do at home after being away for so long that distract players.
The Maple Leafs haven’t had many long road trips this season, but here’s how they’ve faired in the first home game back after playing three or more consecutive away games.
Toronto has had road trips of three, four, and five games thus far. The squad won its first home game following the four-and-five-game road stands but did lose 6-5 in a shootout to the St. Louis Blues after three straight road contests.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise to see the Maple Leafs doing well in this scenario, as they’ve been one of the best home teams in the league. Their 23-6-4 home record is the third-best in the NHL (which also somehow manages to be third among all Atlantic Division teams).
Saturday’s contest against the Edmonton Oilers will mark their first game at home since the team’s recent five-game road stand.
Jekyll and Hyde goalie splits
Some trends are hard to explain, but there’s enough of a sample size at this point of the season to start putting stock in them.
Ilya Samsonov has been noticeably better at home versus the road. He’s 17-2-1 at Scotiabank Arena with a sterling .926 save percentage. On the road, he’s a pedestrian 6-6-1 and owns a .900 save percentage. Bettors are wise to back Samsonov and the Maple Leafs at home and fade him on the road.
Matt Murray, who recently returned after a stint on LTIR, is the exact opposite. Despite being 4-1-1 at home, he has an .888 save percentage. On the road, he’s 7-5-1 but has a significantly better save percentage (.916).
For Murray, backing the over seems like the right call when the squad’s at home. That’ll be especially true for Murray’s next start against the Oilers.
Auston Matthews heating up
We’ve been waiting a while for Matthews to find his 2021-22 form, and it looks like he has.
The Maple Leafs superstar has dealt with injuries this year, and his per-game numbers are down across the board. In addition to having a worse shooting percentage (17.2% to 12.3%), he’s also taking fewer shots per contest (4.77 to 4.14).
But it’s the latter where we’re starting to see some improvement from Matthews. Toronto’s top sniper has four-plus shots on goal in three consecutive games. It may not sound like much, but this is the first time he’s managed that since Dec. 15 to Dec. 20.
Matthews has an impressive 16 shots on goal and leads the squad in Corsi for (18) and scoring chances (17) during this three-game run, according to Natural Stat Trick. His game-winning goal against the Devils is looking like the first of many to come for the lethal goalscorer.
Losing to bad teams
Few teams overlook bad opponents like Toronto.
The Maple Leafs’ ability to play up or down to their opponents is a double-edged sword. The team’s last two games best encapsulate the trait. Against a bottom-feeding Vancouver Canucks squad, Toronto rode an uninspiring effort to a 4-1 loss. Facing the playoff-bound Devils without two key pieces in O’Reilly and Tavares, the Buds fought till the end in a thrilling 4-3 victory.
Fading Toronto against poor teams is where there’s some good money to be made, though.
As of March 4, a $100 bet against the Maple Leafs in all games the team played against the bottom-six squads would’ve net a bettor $1,235.
Overall, the Maple Leafs have won just six of 14 games against the worst the league has to offer. On the road, they’re an abysmal 1-6 on the moneyline against this collection of also-rans.
With games against Columbus and Montreal still on the schedule, bettors are wise to keep this info tucked away for a couple of potentially major cashouts.
