Maple Leafs betting trends: Auston Matthews verging on automatic
The Toronto Maple Leafs enter the all-star break trending in the right direction.
Toronto is riding a three-game winning streak into the unofficial midway point of the season. The team is receiving solid play from its offence and even better play from goaltender Ilya Samsonov.
Here are some Maple Leafs betting trends to know.
Maple Leafs betting trends
Samsonov finding his footing
Maple Leafs fans and bettors likely won't feel fully confident in Samsonov again this season, but he's been solid since returning from a stint in the minors.
Samsonov owns a 3-1-0 record with a .939 save percentage and a shutout since being recalled.
His improved play came at the perfect time for Toronto as fellow netminder Martin Jones began to show signs of decline and fatigue.
Jones started nine games between Jan. 2 and Jan. 20, posting a .857 save percentage over that stretch.
Given his recent numbers, it's unsurprising to see that the under has cashed in three of Samsonov's four starts since returning.
Bettors shouldn't assume Samsonov is fully back at this point as his .878 save percentage on the year is a good reminder as to how horrid he was earlier. Cautiously approach Maple Leafs game totals moving forward.
Maple Leafs betting trends: Auston Matthews putting on a show
We can't do a Maple Leafs trends piece without talking about Auston Matthews.
Toronto's top forward is putting on a goal-scoring show. He has 40 goals this season, making him the first (and only) NHL player to hit the mark before the all-star break.
Matthews has a goal in each of his last three games and seven overall in his last six outings.
While betting Matthews to score during this stretch has been a profitable wager, there isn't another market where he's been otherworldly.
Matthews has recorded two-plus points in just two of his last six and has been held to three shots or fewer in three of those contests.
Bettors would be wise to keep targeting Matthews' goal market in the meantime.
Fade Maple Leafs puck line
Toronto has been a brutal team to back against the puck line this season.
The Maple Leafs have the second-worst puck-line percentage (31.9%) in the NHL, according to Scores and Odds. If a bettor wagered Toronto puck line on every game this year, they would be down 18.36 units.
Only the New Jersey Devils have a worse puck-line percentage (29.8%), costing bettors 20.27 units.
The team hasn't shown any sign of snapping this trend lately, either. Toronto has failed to cover the puck line in seven of its last nine games.
It's wiser to back the Maple Leafs on the moneyline when it makes sense instead. They're 25-22 SU, which is a much more respectable record.
Maple Leafs betting trends: Where's Willie?
We don't want to say that William Nylander is a changed man since signing his recent contract, but the numbers would say he is.
Here are Nylander's numbers before and after signing his eight-year, $92 million contract.
Nylander's stats are down across the board. It's even worth noting that three of his seven points since inking the new deal on Jan. 8 came in a game against the San Jose Sharks the following day.
The winger only has four points in his last nine games, and it's hard to ignore the timing of his recent drop-off.
Bettors should avoid betting Nylander overs in the meantime and consider sprinkling in some unders.
John Tavares is ice cold
It's becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the fact that John Tavares has lost a step.
The Maple Leafs captain, who makes $11 million this season and next, is showing signs of decline. Tavares scored in Toronto's final game before the break but the marker snapped a nine-game pointless drought.
Tavares has 13 goals and 35 points in 47 games this season, putting him on pace for 23 markers and 61 points.
Both would be career-lows for the veteran centre in any season where he's played 60-plus games, excluding his rookie campaign.
Betting against Tavares notching a point isn't a bad call considering his recent form.
