Maple Leafs vs. Flames odds and best bets: Props and predictions for March 2

The Toronto Maple Leafs are back in action, facing the Calgary Flames on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto embarrassingly lost 5-2 to the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday night, but expect plenty of goals and a bounce-back win against Calgary. After playing limited minutes on Wednesday, bank on more action and some offensive fireworks from Ryan O’Reilly.

NHL odds as of 9:16 a.m. on 3/2/223.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames picks

Best Bet: Over 6.5 goals (-117)

Calgary’s goaltending situation makes a wager on the over a wise move.

The Flames are struggling to find any sort of consistency between the pipes with Jacob Markstrom and Daniel Vladar. The latter started the last game against the Boston Bruins but didn’t last long. After allowing two goals on five shots, head coach Darryl Sutter swiftly made a goaltending change.

Markstrom wasn’t much better. He surrendered two goals on 15 shots in a game Calgary lost 4-3 in overtime despite outshooting Boston 57-2.

Vladar owns a putrid .82 save percentage over his last five appearances while Markstrom has a brutal .846 mark in his last five outings.

The Flames are scoring goals, however, notching three or more in five of their last six. This combination of poor goaltending and a surging offence is exactly what you’d like to see when betting an over.

Key stat: Calgary ranks 1th with a 52.5% over percentage and has gone over this number in seven of the team’s last nine games.

Quick picks

Maple Leafs moneyline (-115): Calgary’s goaltending woes make it a difficult squad to trust. Toronto’s playing its second game in as many nights, but that hasn’t been a huge negative this year. The Maple Leafs are 5-3-1 in games with zero days’ rest this season.

Home-ice advantage hasn’t been a factor for the Flames. Calgary’s a mediocre 15-11-3 at Scotiabank Saddledome this year, losing three of their last four at home - including contests to the Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers.

O'Reilly anytime point (-19): Outside of his one big performance against the Buffalo Sabres (3G, 1A), O’Reilly has one point in his other five games with the Blue and White and none in his last three. After only logging 14:19 in ice time against the Oilers (his lowest total since joining Toronto), he’ll likely be busier in the second half of a back-to-back.

Calgary’s subpar goaltending will also help this over hit, as the Flames are tied for allowing the eighth-most goals against per game (3.55) in the last month of the season.

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.