Maple Leafs vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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02 January 2024

Maple Leafs vs Kings Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Kings have had success against the Leafs this season and at the forefront of their offense is Adrian Kempe. Read our NHL betting picks below to find out why we expect him to have more success tonight.

We’ve got 13 games on the NHL slate tonight, including a cross-conference clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Los Angeles Kings.

The NHL odds suggest L.A. should come out victorious, and Kings forward Adrian Kempe could be a big factor tonight.

Find out how in my free NHL picks for this January 2 matchup.

Maple Leafs vs Kings odds

Maple Leafs vs Kings predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs enter tonight’s game on a three-game losing streak coming out of the Christmas break. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Kings are looking to get back into the win column after losses to Vegas and Edmonton over the weekend.

Martin Jones is projected to start between the pipes for Toronto and I think he'll be kept quite busy.

The Kings are one of the top teams in the NHL with a 20-8-5 record and are the highest-volume shooting team in the league, averaging 34 shots per game. This could be a market to target tonight given the Leafs have been prone to giving up a lot of shots to their opponents, ranking 24th in the league with an average of 31.94 shots against per game.

Enter Adrian Kempe, the Kings' leading shooter.

L.A. is a very “by-committee” team, but Kempe leads the Kings in shots on goal this season with 107 through 33 games. That’s an average of 3.2 shots per game.

Kempe’s shot prop total is set at 3.5 tonight against the Maple Leafs. Although the total is higher than his season average, it’s a number he’s surpassed in four of his last five games.

He also went Over the total in the earlier meeting between these two clubs back in October when he registered four shots on goal, with one of them even finding the back of the net.

The Kings winger is currently playing on a top line with Anze Kopitar and is prominently featured on the first unit power play. He's seen his ice time increase by nearly 2.5 minutes more than his career average. Given the Leafs' propensity to give up high shot volumes, he could make it another game with 4+ shots registered on net.

My best bet: Adrian Kempe Over 3.5 shots on goal (+120 at SIA)

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Maple Leafs vs Kings same-game parlay

Adrian Kempe anytime goalscorerUnder 7.5

Kings moneyline

To start my same-game parlay, we’ll marry my best bet with a goal from Adrian Kempe. He’s third in team scoring with 12 goals on the season, including one against the Leafs earlier in the year.

Kempe also features in the Kings’ top power play this season, which faces a struggling Leafs PK that's allowed six goals on their last 18 penalty-killing opportunities.

Next up, I like the Kings to win. This is just a better team all-around and plays a style of hockey that typically gives the Leafs fits, as seen back on October 31 when the Kings won 4-1. Additionally, Toronto is just 2-4 against LA in the Sheldon Keefe Era.

For my final leg, let’s roll with the alternate total of Under 7.5. The Kings are extremely stingy defensively, ranking in the Top 3 in nearly every defensive category.

Chances and goals will be hard to come by for Toronto. Thus, Toronto will have to adapt to this type of game and keep this a low-scoring, low-event hockey game themselves. This favors the Under.

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Maple Leafs vs Kings moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Leafs come into tonight as +115 road dogs, with the Kings entering as the favorites at -135.

The Kings are a hard team to play against and give up little to nothing offensively, which limits what the Leafs are good at... scoring goals. This could pose a problem considering Toronto’s shotty defending and leaky goaltending.

The total for tonight’s game is sitting at 6.5 goals, with the favored side being the Over at -120, while the Under is offering even money (+100).

The Kings are just 11-21-1 on the Over this year due to their stellar defensive play and ability to shut games down. Plus, the Leafs are actively trying to play better defensively themselves, and it’s resulted in the Under going 3-1 in their last four. Given the opponent, I could see it happening again tonight.