Maple Leafs vs Ducks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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03 January 2024

Maple Leafs vs Ducks Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Maple Leafs are a solid road team coming off an impressive shutout victory vs. the Kings. Despite playing on back-to-back days, Toronto is in a good position against the lowly Ducks. Value may be minimal on the ML, so we're eyeing a different market.

There are just two games on the NHL slate tonight, including a cross-conference clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Anaheim Ducks.

Despite playing on the second night of a back-to-back, the NHL odds suggest Toronto should still win tonight, and I think it’ll be thanks to an eruption of offense against a porous defensive team like Anaheim.

Find out why in my free NHL picks for the Maple Leafs vs. Ducks on Wednesday, January 3.

Maple Leafs vs Ducks odds

Maple Leafs vs Ducks predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off an impressive 3-0 win last night over the Los Angeles Kings. The Anaheim Ducks, however, are at the tail end of a tough home stand where they’ve gone 1-4 at the Honda Center.

The Leafs have been very inconsistent this season and have a losing record to teams near the bottom of the standings, so they’ve kind of been a frustrating team to back from a betting perspective. However, one consistent thing the Leafs have been able to do, win or lose, is score goals.

The Maple Leafs team total is set at 3.5 goals tonight, and there’s an excellent chance they hit the Over.

Toronto is averaging the second-most goals with 3.92 per game over the last calendar month, with the number growing to 4.14 goals while on the road. Furthermore, this is a team that is earning those goals with the fifth-highest expected goals in the NHL and the fourth-most high-danger shots on net.

This bodes well for Toronto as Anaheim has been one of the worst defensive teams over the past calendar month when it comes to limiting these types of chances. In the last 30 days, Anaheim ranks 31st in expected goals against while giving up 14.5 high-danger chances per game, the third most in the NHL. Luckily for them, the team’s high-danger save percentage is a league-high .905 in that span, but that seems extremely unsustainable considering the top team HDSV% last season was .860 by the Boston Bruins.

Furthermore, the Leafs’ star players have been humming of late, with two players in the Top 6 in league scoring since December 1, with William Nylander leading the way with 22 points in his last 14 games, while Auston Matthews has 15 goals and 21 points in that same span. Additionally, the team has gotten some secondary scoring as well, with Max Domi, Calle Janrkrok, and Tyler Bertuzzi providing some offense.

All in all, Toronto is the far better team with Anaheim still in rebuild mode. The Leafs should be able to find a way to net four or more goals. Heck, they scored seven times in their last game against the Ducks and have lit the lamp 4+ times in five of their last seven meetings.

My best bet: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 goals (-145 at SIA)

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Maple Leafs vs Ducks same-game parlay

Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5Maple Leafs to score first

Auston Matthews anytime goal

For leg one of my same-game parlay, we’ll go with my best bet and take the Over on the Maple Leafs team total tonight of 3.5 goals.

Next up, I like for Toronto to score first as well. The Leafs have scored first in 54% of their games, while the Ducks have surrendered the first goal in 63% of their games. The Ducks have given up the sixth most goals (41) in the opening frame and have only netted 27 themselves (29th). So let’s lock in a 'Leafs first to score' bet as part of our parlay.

For my final leg, let’s roll with an anytime goal from Auston Matthews. If the Leafs are expected to score 4+, there’s a good chance Matthews lights the lamp at least once. He leads the league with 15 goals since December 1st, but has been held off the score sheet in back-to-back games now, so tonight should be a good matchup to get back in the goal column.

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Maple Leafs vs Ducks moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs come into tonight as -190 favorites with the Ducks as +155 underdogs. The Leafs are 7-3 on the moneyline against the Ducks over their last 10 meetings. However, the Leafs have struggled to play against lower competition and could be giving Dennis Hildeby his first career start in the NHL.

So the value might not be there on the moneyline, but consider a better value bet on the Leafs to win in regulation and both teams to score at even money (+100). It’ll make backing the Leafs worth it.

The total for tonight’s game is sitting at 6.5, with the Over at -135, while the Under is offering plus money (+110). I’d wait until the starters are announced before betting on the total.

If Martin Jones plays again tonight for the Leafs, you may want to consider the Under. He’s played really well and has allowed just six goals over his last four starts. Lucas Dostal would be the preferred goalie in Anaheim if you bet on the Under as well. But if Hildeby and a slumping John Gibson get the nods... I’d take the Over.