Mariners at Diamondbacks Picks, Odds, & Betting Lines
Picks
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SEA @ ARI
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
SEA @ ARI
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
19%
PUBLIC
81%
42%
PUBLIC
58%
Expert Picks
22-17 IN LAST 39 MLB ML PICKS
19-13 IN LAST 32 ARI ML PICKS
Zack's Analysis: The Arizona Diamondbacks have an opportunity Sunday to win a home series for the first time post All Star break. On the mound will be Merrill Kelly who looked sharp in Tuesday’s return from a near month on the injured list. Expect the Mariner’s bad fortune to continue with Luis Castillo on the mound, as Seattle is just 3 and 7 over his last ten starts. Back the Diamondbacks.
Pick Made:Sun 5:31 PM UTC
33-21 IN LAST 54 SEA ML PICKS
Micah's Analysis: The Diamondbacks have emphatically shown they don’t want postseason play and it happened in July when they went 7-15. It also happened when Merrill Kelly missed a month of starts (calf) until he beat the Cardinals 3-1 in his first start back five days ago. Luis Castillo has pitched well, but the Mariners have lost three straight behind him. Arizona despite their recent woes still has a better record than Seattle. Arizona to win.
Pick Made:Jul 30, 5:10 PM UTC
10-1 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS
16-2 IN LAST 18 SEA ML PICKS
9-2 IN LAST 11 ARI ML PICKS
Matt's Analysis: The Diamondbacks have been in a rut all month. Since winning on July 1, they are 6-15. No team in baseball has been worse. Getting Luis Castillo and the Mariners Sunday is a tall order for a team in such a funk. Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly is having an excellent season, but it's been too good to be true. He's due regression. The odds are favorable for the better team with the better pitcher here, so we'll roll with the Mariners.
Pick Made:Jul 30, 2:51 PM UTC
22-11 IN LAST 33 MLB ML PICKS
6-2 IN LAST 8 SEA ML PICKS
8-3 IN LAST 11 ARI ML PICKS
Max's Analysis: Even though Luis Castillo has been one of the best starters this season, the Mariners are just 5-11 in his last 16 starts. On the other side, the Diamondbacks are 7-2 in Merrill Kelly's last nine starts. Kelly's first start since coming off IL was a beauty as he pitched six one-run innings. This will be the last game of a six-game road trip for the Mariners. They are limping to the finish line. Back Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks in this one.
Pick Made:Jul 30, 10:12 AM UTC
26-11 IN LAST 37 MLB ATS PICKS
32-12 IN LAST 44 SEA ATS PICKS
21-12 IN LAST 33 ARI ATS PICKS
Matt's Analysis: Realize that I think differently than others, but the overall better team at home is getting +1.5 in a not-lopsided pitching matchup? I'm going to always take that. Luis Castillo vs. Merrill Kelly sure feels like a one-run game. I don't have to care who wins and can start unpacking my Christmas gear (no!). Too soon? Heard the first song already .... and yes Die Hard is a Christmas movie.
Pick Made:Jul 30, 4:00 AM UTC
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
When Line was -126 to +104
MONEY LINE
When Line was -124 to +106
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
3rd game without a day off
REST
3rd game without a day off
when Luis Castillo starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Merrill Kelly starts
The Simulation uses parameters such as each team's statistics, expected lineups and defense-adjusted performance metrics to simulate every game 10,000 times and generate projections for the matchup. Those projections are then compared to the betting lines to create pick grades based on confidence, with "A" picks representing the biggest edge.
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