Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Odds, Betting Lines, Expert picks, Game Projections and DFS Projections
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PHI @ ARI
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
PHI @ ARI
Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
Over / UnderOVER 9.5 +100
7-1-1 in Last 9 MLB Picks
11-4-1 in Last 16 PHI Picks
7-3-1 in Last 11 PHI O/U Picks
Kenny's Analysis:
Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez hasn't pitched in a game since September 30th (1 inning) and hasn't started a game since September 24. Sanchez' numbers are good but I need to take off 20% from his rating. Arizona is going with Joe Mantiply and Ryne Nelson, giving the Diamondbacks average pitching and you know what the Phillies can do against average pitching. The roof will also be open which surprises me because the temperatures will still be in the high 90's. I'm not sure how true this is but the dry air (8% humidity) in Phoenix will take all of the humidity out of the baseballs. If that's true this total should be 14.
Pick Made:Fri 9:01 pm UTC
Money LinePhiladelphia -135
Alex's Analysis:
Im going to go back to the well with the Phillies as this team has done a fantastic job bouncing back after a loss. Surely they want to avoid the series being tied 2-2 and have to face Zac Gallen at home. It appears to be a bullpen game for Arizona. I like the Phillies chances to take care of business after losing a tight game yesterday.
Pick Made:Fri 7:17 pm UTC
Over / UnderOVER 9.5 -105
10-2-1 in Last 13 MLB Picks
Bruce's Analysis:
It's been over three weeks since Christopher Sanchez pitched in a game for the Phils, and after they lost in four of his five September starts, not fully confident we want to back Philly in Game 4. Nor are we with the D-backs in what will be a bullpen game for Torey Lovullo with Joe Mantiply taking the mound at the outset. Arizona has scored only 5 runs across three games in this series to date buy if any of these games looks like it might be an offensive showcase this is it. Play Phils-Diamondbacks "Over"
Pick Made:Fri 6:44 pm UTC
Over / UnderOVER 9.5 -105
Micah's Analysis:
Christopher Sanchez makes his first start since Sept. 24, a Phillies win against the Mets that ended a four-game slide behind Sanchez. Joe Mantiply will get an inning of work or so and in his last appearance in Game 2, he got one out, gave up three runs, three hits, and walked two. This will be the fourth start of his career – all three coming this season. The hot Phillies bats got cooled down in their first chance in Arizona with just three hits and 13 strikeouts, but they’ll hit today and so will the Diamondbacks. Over is the top play here
Pick Made:Fri 6:01 pm UTC
Money LinePhiladelphia -130
27-17 in Last 44 MLB ML Picks
13-7-1 in Last 21 MLB Picks
5-2 in Last 7 PHI Picks
Matt's Analysis:
As noted yesterday, I have the Phillies in five here and I'm just going to play the Phillies every game, assuming that I miss one and hit four of the five. Game 3 was my miss. Specifically, I don't think the Diamondbacks' bullpen is deep enough to stay steady for a whole bullpen game. I do think Christopher Sanchez will give quality innings before the Phillies' bullpen is dipped into. Plus, the Phillies have the more explosive offense and it might turn into a slugfest. Finally, this is a pretty low number for the clearly better team.
Pick Made:Fri 4:58 pm UTC
Money LinePhiladelphia -134
Sia's Analysis:
As much as I'd love to go with my classic First Five bet, it's difficult to justify with bullpen games likely coming from these teams. I trust the Phillies bats and bullpen more than Arizona and I think we are getting a good price here thanks to the lack of a pitching ace for the Phillies and the fact that they are on the road. Phillies win this one.
Pick Made:Fri 1:09 pm UTC
Point SpreadArizona +1.5 -152
86-50 in Last 136 MLB ATS Picks
13-4-1 in Last 18 MLB Picks
77-47 in Last 124 ARI Picks
27-12 in Last 39 ARI ATS Picks
Matt's Analysis:
Cristopher Sanchez vs. (probably after opener Joe Mantiply) Ryne Nelson? Yuck. I don't think the starting pitchers matter much in Game 4 as I expect both bullpens will be used extensively. Do believe Arizona came out of Game 3 with its pen in better shape considering the Phils used Jose Alvarado for two innings and Craig Kimbrel for 24 pitches -- although maybe it's not a bad thing if Kimbrel isn't available. Arizona has not even hit yet in this series. Feels like it is due. Also think the crowd will be a bigger factor with a 5:07 local time start on a Friday compared to 2:07 on Thursday.
Pick Made:Fri 1:01 am UTC
Philadelphia Phillies
No Player Injuries
Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, Oct 16, 2023
RP
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
When Line was -149 to -119
MONEY LINE
When Line was -102 to +128
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
vs Teams That Win 46-54% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >4.2 Runs
2nd game without a day off
REST
2nd game without a day off
when Cristopher Sanchez starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Joe Mantiply starts
The Simulation uses parameters such as each team's statistics, expected lineups and defense-adjusted performance metrics to simulate every game 10,000 times and generate projections for the matchup. Those projections are then compared to the betting lines to create pick grades based on confidence, with "A" picks representing the biggest edge.
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