Mariners vs. Mets prediction and odds for Friday, Sept. 1 (Soft schedule continues)

Somehow, the red-hot Seattle Mariners nearly lost a series to the worst team in baseball this week, but with a 5-4 win in the finale they took two of three from the Oakland A’s.

Now, their schedule really doesn’t get much harder with three games against the New York Mets in Queens. 

The Mariners have shot up to a first-place tie with Houston in the AL West at 76-57 because of a soft stretch in their schedule. The Mets on the other hand have sunk down to last place in the NL East at 61-73.

For Game 1, the Mariners are going with Logan Gilbert against Kodai Senga. Gilbert is 12-5 in 26 starts with a 3.66 ERA and Senga comes into his 25th starts with a 3.17 ERA and a record of 10-7. 

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Now, let’s get into the odds and my pick for the Mariners and Mets from Citi Field. 

The Seattle Mariners had a great month of August, but I think their recent stretch of 13-2 has more to do with their weak schedule than their great play. That’s outside of their sweep of the Astros which was very impressive.

However, outside of that series they haven’t played one team with a winning record. In fact they’ve played the worst team in baseball, the A’s, the second worst team, the Royals, twice, and the fourth worst team, the White Sox. 

Seattle posted the second best team ERA in August at 3.03, just barely behind the Dodgers and the third best team OPS. They scored the fifth most runs and Julio Rodriguez finished the month with a 1.198 OPS, 10 doubles, and seven home runs. Teoscar Hernandez was also excellent with the seventh best OPS in baseball, 1.050, nine doubles and seven homers. 

I’m not taking anything away from this run by Seattle. I almost can’t believe that they’ve shot themselves back up into the race for this division, but I’m just saying they’ve gotten some good fortune with their opponents along the way. I’m also saying that good fortune isn’t ending. 

Logan Gilbert has been great and can absolutely go toe-to-toe with Senga who’s one of New York’s few bright spots. If those two pitch to a stalemate I’ll take Seattle’s bullpen which has posted a 2.67 ERA since the start of July against New York’s which is at 4.78 over the same stretch. 

Give me Seattle, even though I’m still a bit skeptical about the team against good competition. It’s a good thing the Mets aren’t that. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change