Mark O'Haire's football betting tips, best bets and nap: Fancying Freiburg

sportinglife.com

19 October 2023

Mark O'Haire's football betting tips, best bets and nap: Fancying Freiburg

Football betting tips: Weekend

3pts Freiburg to beat Bochum and Under 5.5 Goals at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

2.5pts Annan vs Queen of the South: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

2.5pts Heidenheim vs Augsburg: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals at evens (Sky Bet)

The above are enhanced prices with a £25 max stake

Freiburg vs Bochum

On the surface, Freiburg have endured an erratic start to the Bundesliga season. The Black Forrest boys are safely ensconced in mid-table having returned W3-D1-L3 from their first seven fixtures, however, all three defeats have arrived against the current top-four, suggesting Christian Streich’s are strong operators against the rest of the division.

Back at their Stade Europa-Park base on Saturday, I’m backing Freiburg to be too strong for the visit of lowly Bochum. The home side boast a 60% win record in front of their supporters since the start of last season, a percentage hit-rate that would imply odds of around the 4/6 (1.66) mark on a Freiburg success here.

The available odds on a Freiburg triumph are slightly bigger than that, and we can boost the price further by backing FREIBURG TO WIN & UNDER 5.5 GOALS at 10/11. The selection pays-out should the Breisgau-Brasilianer triumph 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0, 2-1, 3-1 or even 4-1.

Basement battlers Bochum (W0-D4-L3) are fortunate to have four points on the board. Thomas Letsch’s team rank rock-bottom for expected goals (xG) ratio, have notched the second-lowest goals tally in the division (5), whilst simultaneously conceding a league-high 19 strikes at an average of 2.71 goals per-game.

The visitors have W2-D5-L14 on their travels since returning to the Bundesliga, conceding twice or more in 14 of those 21 showdowns., shipping 2.57 goals per-game. Bochum failed to even score in 12 of those 22 tussles and have already leaked 14 goals in just four away days this season. Bochum are easily opposed this weekend.

Annan vs Queen of the South

Dumfries and Galloway rivals Annan and Queen of the South cross swords in league action for only the second time in history on Saturday and a repeat of August’s four-goal thriller could be in the offing at Galabank.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE & OVER 2.5 GOALS pays a boosted 10/11 and is well worth a closer look.

The two teams in action own the second and third-worst defensive records in Scotland’s League One, but have both proven they can pack a real punch in the final-third, with goals numbers remaining consistently strong across the board.

Each side have notched in seven of their opening nine league dates, with the two teams each firing a blank against high-flying Falkirk. The pair are also amongst the front-runners when viewing shots and shots on-target numbers, highlighting their offensive threat.

However, Annan and QOTS have combined to keep a solitary shutout across those first nine rounds, giving us a very solid base for a potential BTTS wager. And with Over 2.5 Goals clicking in 14 of their collective 18 showdowns – half of which went Over 3.5 Goals – another entertaining shootout may well be on the cards.

Heidenheim vs Augsburg

The Bundesliga – Europe’s highest-scoring major league – has been great fun to follow in the embryonic stages of the season. Germany’s top-flight is averaging a huge 3.52 goals per-game with 71% of encounters beating the Over 2.5 Goals line, 51% of fixtures featuring four strikes or more and 60% of outings seeing both sides oblige.

I’m therefore keen to get amongst the goals when newly-promoted Heidenheim take on early season strugglers Augsburg. Collectively, 10 of the duos first 14 encounters this term have crossed the Over 2.5 Goals barrier – half of which also banked for Over 3.5 Goals backers – as Both Teams To Score obliged on nine occasions.

The pair have managed a solitary clean sheet between them, leaking twice or more in 12 of their combined 14 dates, installing little belief in their defensive ability. However, with both sides seeing Sunday’s match-up as a potential winnable contest, and with Augsburg eager to impress new coach Jess Thorup, an entertaining encounter is expected.

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE& OVER 2.5 GOALS is available to support at even money holds plenty of appeal, especially so considering Heidenheim’s matches are averaging a huge 3.36 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per-game.

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